000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232155
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU DEC 23 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 02N78W TO 
07N99W TO 08N125W TO 09N140W. TROUGH WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 10N99W 
TO 06N102W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W OF 
TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...
 
A 1025 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED JUST N OF AREA NEAR 31N123W EXTENDS 
A RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS COVERING ROUGHLY THE AREA N OF 
16N W OF 110W. SW WINDS OF 20 KT ARE NOTED OVER THE NW CORNER OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH 
30N140W NEAR 24/0600 UTC. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE OVER 
THE N WATERS EXTENDING FROM 30N134W TO 26N140W FRI AFTERNOON... 
AND FROM 30N125W TO 20N132W SAT AFTERNOON. S TO SW WINDS OF 20 
TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT PARTICULARLY N OF 25N. 
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT SAT 
AFTERNOON. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AS 
HIGH OF 17 FT CAN BE FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N129W TO 09N135W. THIS TROUGH IS 
EXPECTED TO DRIFT W AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY OVER THE NEXT 
24-36 HOURS. THE WEAK LOW PRES THAT WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ 
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS DISSIPATED AND NOW A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS NOTED ON THE 1800 UTC SURFACE. SEE ITCZ SECTION.  
  
CROSS EQUATORIAL SE WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT ARE NOTED OVER THE 
TROPICAL WATERS S OF 07N W OF 125W WITH THE AFFECTED AREA 
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN 48 HOURS.
   
GAP WINDS...
DECIDE TO INCREASE WINDS UP TO 30 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC BASED ON A SHIP OBSERVATION...A WINDSAT PASS AND 
LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM IXTEPEC OAXACA MEXICO. WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT FRI AFTERNOON BUT WILL INCREASE 
AGAIN TO 25 KT SAT AFTERNOON. THE MARINE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO 
SHOW AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. A MINIMAL GALE FORCE 
WIND EVENT COULD TAKE PLACE.

AN ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED NE WINDS OF 20 KT THROUGH 
THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL 
PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 20 
KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA.  
     
$$
GR