000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080329
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0600 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 05N77W 
TO 07N100W TO 10N120W THEN RESUMES NEAR 09N124W TO 09N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 
138W.

...DISCUSSION...

1024 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 32N124W WITH RIDGING OVER THE 
FORECAST WATERS N OF 18N W OF 110W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED 
IN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM NEAR 15N120W TO 08N124W. THE PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN 
20 KT WINDS WITHIN 180 NM NW OF THE TROUGH WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. 20 
KT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS WITHIN 240 NM SE OF THE TROUGH WITH 
SEAS TO 9 FT. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
DISSIPATING BY 48 HOURS WHILE RIDGING TO THE N OF IT 
STRENGTHENS. NE TO E TRADES OF 20 KT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED 
ROUGHLY FROM 10N TO 17N W OF 130W BY 48 HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME 
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA BY 24 THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH NW TO N WINDS INCREASING TO
20 KT AS A RESULT.

A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED AS IT ATTEMPTED TO ENTER THE NW PORTION 
OF THE AREA DUE TO BLOCKING FROM THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH. FRESH 
SW FLOW EXISTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT PER EARLIER WINDSAT AND ASCAT 
PASSES. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT 
BY LATE WED AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT 
DISSIPATES. THE HIGH CENTER WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT STAYING NORTH OF 
THE AREA.

LARGE NW SWELL WITH PEAK WAVE PERIODS OF 14 TO 15 SECONDS HAS 
OUTRUN THE FRONT WITH SEAS UP TO 17 FT NEAR 30N140W. SEAS WILL 
CONTINUE TO BUILD REACHING 19 FT BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. THE NW 
SWELL WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECAY TO 15 FT WHILE PROPAGATING 
FURTHER S AND SE REACHING THE EQUATOR BY LATE THU AFTERNOON.

20 TO 25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN 
PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS INDICATED BY AN EARLIER 
WINDSAT PASS AS HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE U.S. GREAT 
BASIN WITH TROUGHING IN PLACE ALONG THE E PORTION OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 
12 UTC THU AS THE TROUGHING WEAKENS.

GAP WINDS...
AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS CAPTURED N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IN 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALTHOUGH MORE RECENT LAND BASED 
OBSERVATIONS AT IXTEPEC IN OAXACA MEXICO HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 
KT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING AROUND 06 UTC THU AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD 
AIR PUSHES DOWN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH THE CHIVELA 
PASS. GALE FORCE CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH 00 UTC FRI.

GAP WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. 
FRESH WINDS NEAR THE GULF OF FONSECA ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 
20 KT COMMENCING AROUND 18 UTC THU AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES 
THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA ALLOWING NORTHERLY FLOW TO FUNNEL 
THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICAN PASSES.

LOW PRES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THE E PORTION OF THE 
ISTHMUS OF PANAMA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS DELIVERING 20 KT NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA 
TONIGHT AND INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT BY 00 UTC THU WITH 
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALSO INCREASING TO 20 KT W OF THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA BY 12 UTC WED THROUGH 00 UTC THU.

$$
LEWITSKY