000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061003
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON DEC 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS FROM 05N77W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
08N112W TO 10N130W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF LOW PRES. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 09N TO 13N BETWEEN 125W 
AND 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W..
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N123W TO 26N125W TO 20N135W 
WILL DRIFT EAST AND DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING...AHEAD A 1020 
MB SURFACE HIGH PRES AREA CENTERED OVER 25N135W SHIFTING NE 
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGH PRES WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY TUE NEAR 
32N125W...AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE N 
CENTRAL PACIFIC. WHILE THE SECOND FRONT WILL STALL JUST TO THE 
NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TUE AND WED...FRESH TO STRONG SW FLOW 
WILL SET UP JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER TODAY THROUGH TUE. 
FURTHER SOUTH...ASCAT DATA ARE SHOWING FRESH TRADES BETWEEN THE 
1020 MB HIGH PRES AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 130W FROM 09N 
TO 14N. THE TROUGH WILL DAMPEN OUT TUE...IN TANDEM WITH THE HIGH 
PRES LIFTING OUT AND DISSIPATING...ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO 
DIMINISH BARELY 20 KT ON TUE OVER AN AREA LIMITED TO FROM 11N TO 
15N BETWEEN 122W AND 133W ON WED. MEANWHILE A LOW PRES AREA 
CENTERED NEAR 08N112W 1009 MB WILL SHIFT W TO 08N115W TUE...THEN 
OPEN UP INTO A WEAK TROUGH ALONG 120W WED. ASCAT PASSES CONTINUE 
TO SHOW WINDS TO 20 KT ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW PRES 
FACING HIGHER PRES TO THE N. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 48 
HOURS...BUT THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL SHRINK TO WITHIN 90 NM OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS BY EARLY WED. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS 
OF 8 TO 15 FT WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE BEHIND THE 
FRONT...ALTHOUGH DECAYING TO 8 OR 9 FT BY WED FROM 07N TO 20N W 
OF 130W BY WED. A NEW ROUND OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL PUSH 
INTO THE DICUSSION AREA GENERALLY N OF 25N W OF 132W WITH SEAS 8 
TO 15 FT BY EARLY WED. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ...AIDED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW 
ALOFT ON THE SE SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 140W.

E OF 110W...
A 04Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED 30 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM 03Z AT IXTEPEC MEXICO SHOW 
GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH TEHUANTPEC N AT 25 KT GUSTING TO 35 KT...A 
HINT THAT GRADIENT FLOW OVER THE ADJECENT GULF OF TEHUANTEPC IS 
LIKELY REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL 
PERSIST THROUGH LATE TUE...ON THE HEELS OF A PUSH OF COLD AIR 
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE FAR SW GULF OF MEXICO. FRESH SWELL OF 
HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FT WILL PUSH BEYOND THE AREA OF 
WINDS...GENERALLY FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W. FURTHER 
SOUTH...FRESH GAP WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO PULSE THROUGH THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH 48 HOURS. NORTH WINDS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE 
ISTHMUS OF PANAMA INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA AFTER 24 HOURS...DUE 
TO LOW PRES OVER COASTAL COLOMBIA. 20 KT FLOW WILL ALSO SET UP 
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AFTER 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS 
OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

$$
CHRISTENSEN