000
AXPZ20 KNHC 051015
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN DEC 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM 09N84W TO 
06N90W TO LOW PRES NEAR 07N104W TO 09N124W TO 07N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
A 06Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20 TO 30 KT WESTERLY FLOW ON THE S SIDE 
OF 1003 MB LOW PRES CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N132W. THE LOW 
WAS SLIDING EAST...FOLLOWING A WASHED OUT COLD FRONT/SHEAR LINE 
THAT EXTENDED FROM 30N123W TO 20N133W TO 16N140W. THE ASCAT PASS 
ALSO DEPICTED FRESH TRADES N OF THE SHEAR LINE S OF 20N. A SHIP 
OBSERVATION FROM A FEW HOURS AGO CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF LONG 
PERIOD NW SWELL OF UP TO 12 FT MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE N 
CENTRAL PACIFIC. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL SWELL TO 19 FT 
FROM 25N W OF 125W. FURTHER SOUTH...TRADES CONTINUE S OF THE 
BOUNDARY...W OF 135W. THE LOW PRES WILL SHIFT E AND WEAKEN N OF 
THE AREA. AS A RESULT...THE STRONGER WINDS WILL REMAIN N OF 
25N...AND DIMINISH THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE ACCOMPANYING SWELL WILL 
ALSO SUBSIDE...BUT MORE SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT 
SHIFTS S. 

MEANWHILE LOW PRES CURRENTLY ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 105W WILL SHIFT 
W ALONG THE ITCZ BECOMING A TROUGH ALONG 120W BY 72 HOURS. AN 
EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS TO 20 KT N OF THIS LOW...IN PART 
AIDED BY FRESH WINDS ORIGINATING OUT OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE 
LOW MOVES S OF HIGH PRES OFF NORTHERN BAJA. SEAS WILL STAY 
AROUND 8 FT IN THE AREA OF 20 KT WINDS...THEN SUBSIDE BY 72 
HOURS AS THE LOW WEAKENS.

E OF 110W...
THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE SUN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SW 
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH. FURTHER SOUTH...20 KT WINDS WILL 
PULSE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...MAINLY IN THE OVERNIGHT 
HOURS DUE TO DRAINAGE INFLUENCES. A 06Z ASCAT CONFIRMED THIS 
PATTERN WAS SETTING UP. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IT PERSISTING OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN