000
AXPZ20 KNHC 042150
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT DEC 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM 09N84W TO LOW 
PRES NEAR 07N86W TO LOW PRES NEAR 07N100W TO 10N124W TO 08N131W 
TO 09N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

...DISCUSSION...
WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM 30N124W TO 20N133W. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A
1007 MB LOW WITH GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR 33N138W ROTATING THROUGH 
LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED W OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 36N134W. THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING 20-30 KT WINDS TO NW PORTION OF THE AREA
N OF 26N. BY SUN NIGHT THE LOW WITH ASSOCIATED WIND AND HIGH SEAS
LIFTS N TOWARD THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT 
WILL APPROACH THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH SW WINDS
APPROACHING 30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN WARM SECTOR. 

FURTHER SOUTH...A 1010 MB LOW PRES CENTERED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 
07N100W DRIFTING WESTWARD IS TRIGGERING SPORADIC DEEP CONVECTION 
WITH A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT WINDS WITHIN 60 NM N SEMICIRCLE. A 
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ANALYZED FROM 
16N121W TO 08N124W. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE PERSISTING 
WITHIN THE ITCZ AND DRIFTING W. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE 
TO 20 KT IN THE GRADIENT NW OF THE TROUGH AXIS SUN NIGHT AND MON.

GAP WINDS...
WINDS ARE BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA. 
HOWEVER...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SW GULF OF 
MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH LATE SUN.
SURFACE PRESSURES BUILD MON FROM A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR...ALLOWING
WINDS TO ONCE AGAIN REACH GALE FORCE EARLY MON AND CONTINUE INTO 
TUE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED 
IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR THE AREA BEGINNING 0600 UTC MON.  

GAP WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH NE WINDS PULSING TO 20 TO 
25 KT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. WINDS ARE 
NORMALLY GREATEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS 
WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.

$$
MUNDELL