000 AXPZ20 KNHC 301529 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE NOV 30 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 08N81W TO 07N97W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N108W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N119W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 06N E OF 82W...INCLUDING INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 104W AND 114W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 117W AND 124W. ...DISCUSSION... 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N123W DRIFTING SOUTHWARD WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 32N124W CONTINUING SE THROUGH 22N115W TO 17N108W. MEANWHILE...A STRONGER 1042 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE U.S. INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH SURFACE TROUGHING IN PLACE OVER NW MEXICO. THIS PRESSURE PATTERN IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 22N TO 29N E OF 120W TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AS DEPICTED BY A 30/0440 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE ASCAT PASSES EARLIER THIS MORNING ALSO INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TRADES ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE GENERALLY FROM 10N TO 22N W OF 114W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL. THESE FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA BY 30/1800 UTC. EXPECT N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL ARRIVING BEHIND THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT N OF 29N WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE REMAIN EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. A 1010 MB LOW IS POSITIONED NEAR 10N108W AND CONTINUES DRIFTING W. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW HAS A LARGE AREAL COVERAGE...YET REMAINS MOSTLY SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG...LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION. ANOTHER 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N119W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS LOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW TO N WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WILL PERSIST TODAY SPILLING SOUTH OF 23N TO 20N E OF 110W. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE PROJECTS SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ALTHOUGH RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS REPORT SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 06 UTC THURSDAY AS SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE REGION FINALLY DISSIPATES. IN THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE AREA...SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL INCREASE S OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP N OF PANAMA IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. 20 KT FLOW WILL FEED INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN LOW BEGINNING AROUND 00 UTC WEDNESDAY THEN WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 1200 UTC THURSDAY. GAP WINDS... A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES PUSHING ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL MOVE INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF LATER TODAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SURGE THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND DOWNWIND THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY 01/0600 UTC THEN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE REACHING STORM FORCE BY 01/1200 UTC. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 20 FT AS A RESULT OF THE STORM FORCE WINDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BACK TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE BY THURSDAY. AN EARLY MORNING ASCAT PASS CAPTURED NE TO E WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE CENTRAL AMERICA COAST INCREASES. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN 15 TO 20 KT EVEN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AS FUNNELING OF FRESH WINDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE E PACIFIC INCREASES...EVENTUALLY BECOMING 20 TO 25 KT AND EXPANDING IN COVERAGE BY 12 UTC THURSDAY. OF NOTE: NOVEMBER 30 MARKS THE END OF THE 2010 TROPICAL SEASON IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SEVEN TROPICAL STORMS FORMED DURING THE SEASON WITH THREE OF THEM REACHING HURRICANE STATUS. $$ HUFFMAN