000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211516
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN NOV 21 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 9N84W 6N105W 10N120W 9N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS FROM 122W-124W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
WITH AXIS FROM 32N140W TO 13N134W. DOWNSTREAM BROAD UPPER LEVEL
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. EXTENDING SWD TO 32N121W TO 
16N125W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE ARE AT 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS WITHIN 420 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
TROUGH. A 75-105 KT JET STREAM EXTENDS FROM 32N130W TO 30N113W 
AND OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS 
FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THEN N OVER EASTERN 
MEXICO. IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS CENTERED NEAR 5N110W. MODERATE TO STRONG IS S OF THE ITCZ W 
OF 90W.

DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM 
32N115W TO 26N125W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS COLDS ARE W 
OF THE FRONT. LARGE NLY SWELLS TO 11 FT ARE ALSO NOTED W OF THE 
FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL 
INCREASE TRADES FROM 13N TO 18N W OF 120W IN THE NEXT 12-24 
HOURS. SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N119W TO 1012 MB LOW PRES
NEAR 11N123W TO 6N125W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALONG 
THE TROUGH N OF 9N.

20 KT WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE FORECAST TO 
GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO LESS THAN 20 KT MON.

ELY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE 
CENTRAL AMERICA PASSES BRINGING 20 KT WINDS INTO THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING 
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF NOCTURNAL 
DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. 

$$
DGS