000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191539
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI NOV 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 08N83W TO 
05N104W TO 11N111W THEN RESUMES AT 11N119W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 09 TO 12N BETWEEN 
127W AND 132W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS AND W OF 123W. 

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE N WATERS. 
UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ 
W OF 123W. A RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ELY WINDS ARE NOTED 
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA E OF 
90W. 

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 25N125W WILL 
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE 
AREA FROM THE NW.  THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW WATERS 
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY N TO NE WINDS OF 20 KT AND A NEW BATCH OF NW 
SWELL WITH RAISING SEAS UP TO 11 FT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO A 
POSITION FROM 30N126W TO 24N134W SAT MORNING...AND FROM 30N117W 
TO 25N124W TO 24N140W SUN MORNING.

A WEAK 1010MB LOW PRES IS WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 12N115W. A SWIRL 
OF LOW CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO 
EXTENDS FROM 14N112W TO LOW CENTER THEN TO 10N117W. A FEW 
SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 

GAP WINDS...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
WHERE WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT ARE STILL BLOWING BASED ON SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS FROM IXTEPEC MEXICO AND HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT DATA. 
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE IN ABOUT 24 
HOURS. A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING 
CORROBORATE THE PRESENCE OF THIS GAP WIND EVENT. SHIP ZCDN9 
SITUATED NEAR 16N94W REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 36 KT AND 
COMBINED SEA HEIGHT OF 12 FT. SHIP MTFH5 LOCATED NEAR 14N95W 
REPORTED 25 KT SUSTAINED WINDS AND SEAS OF 13 FT.


$$
GR