000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140918
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN NOV 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 7N89W 11N110W 10N125W 10N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA BORDER 
ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 25N132W. MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE WITH VERY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT IS ACROSS THE AREA
FROM 20N-30N W OF 120W. A 75-90 KT JET STREAM SE OF THE UPPER 
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 23N117W ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA 
AND OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 100 KT. AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO TO 14N125W. SW TO W FLOW ALOFT S OF 
JET AND N OF THE ABOVE UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING MID/UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ TO ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. IN THE DEEP 
TROPICS AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 
4N125W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED S OF 8N W OF 100W.

A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 7N87W 
DRIFTING E A FEW SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE LOW CENTER. A SECOND 1012 
MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 11N111W WITH A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW NE TO 14N107W. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE LOW CENTER. THE LOW IS NEARLY 
STATIONARY WITH AN AREA OF 20 KT WINDS 120 NM OF CENTER. 
OTHERWISE HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. 
THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING A TIGHT ENOUGHT PRES GRADIENT TO GENERATE 
20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA WITH NORTHERLY 
SWELLS TO 12 FT.

$$
DGS