000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110936
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU NOV 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 08N86W 
TO 07N92W TO 10N103W TO 09N129W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 
114W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 129W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 34N137W WITH A 
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO NEAR 18N110W. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURES NEAR THE 
ITCZ ARE SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADES ROUGHLY FROM 10N 
TO 27N W OF 122W. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND THE FRESH 
TO STRONG TRADES WILL EXPAND TO THE ENTIRE AREA N OF 10N W OF 
120W BY 24 HOURS. 

THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SURFACE LATENT 
ENERGY FLUX AND INCREASE CONVERGENCE INTO THE ITCZ ENHANCING 
CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ W OF 129W...THE LOWER LEVEL PORTION OF 
THE HADLEY CIRCULATION. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO THE 
ITCZ IS ALSO OCCURRING BETWEEN 102W AND 114W...ENHANCING 
CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM THE 
CONVECTION IS ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...THE UPPER LEVEL 
PORTION OF THE HADLEY CIRCULATION. CONSERVATION OF ANGULAR 
MOMENTUM FROM THE NORTHWARD FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF 
THE HADLEY CIRCULATION IS CREATING THE SUBTROPICAL JET WHICH 
STARTS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND 
EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS ADVECTING 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ OVER 
CENTRAL MEXICO. 

NW SWELL WITH PEAK WAVE PERIODS OF 14 TO 15 SECONDS DOMINATES 
THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS W OF 100W. THIS SWELL IS COMMINGLING 
WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL AND SHORTER PERIOD NE SWELL OVER 
THE AREA S OF 20N. THE SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DECAY 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE NEW SETS OF NORTHERLY SWELL 
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE DOWN THROUGH THE AREA.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL BECOME 
ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA REGION WITH THE HIGH 
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE N WATERS AND AN INVERTED TROUGH 
FORMING ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. 
NW TO N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND 
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS WHILE EXPANDING SOUTHWARD 
TO 25N BY LATE FRI NIGHT.

$$
AL