000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010943 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON NOV 01 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS FROM 09N84W TO 07N95W TO 11N110W TO 06N135W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... ASCAT DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM IN A BROAD 5 DEGREE WIDE SWATH FROM THE BAJA COAST SW TO 15N140W...WITH LIGHT FLOW FURTHER NORTH CLOSER TO A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N127W. LATEST SHIP AND JASON ALTIMETER DATA SHOW SEAS AROUND 8 FT BETWEEN 10N AND 20N...PRIMARILY IN DECAYING NW SWELL. THE TREND FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS HAS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S...BETWEEN DEEP LAYER TROUGHS DIGGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE...AND THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE. THE ASSOCIATED 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH LATE TODAY...ALLOWING THE TRADE WINDS TO INCREASE. THE TRADES WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE TUE INTO WED AS THE HIGH PRES TO THE N WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. LOOKING AHEAD...NW SWELL GENERATED BY STRONG WINDS OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL PUSH SE THROUGH THE AREA STARTING TUE. A LINE OF NW SWELL UP TO 20 FT WITH PERIODS TO 19 SECONDS WILL PUSH SE OF 30N140W TUE MORNING. THIS WILL DECAY AS IT MOVES SE...REACHING THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST BY EARLY WED WITH SEAS TO 15 FT. E OF 110W... A 03Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED A BROAD FIELD OF 15 KT S TO SW WINDS FROM 03N TO 08N E OF 100W. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT STARTING TUE...FLOWING INTO T.S. TOMAS AS IT ENTERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. FURTHER NORTH...GAP WIND FLOW IS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO TUE NIGHT...DELIVERING GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC STARTING WED. GULF OF CALIFORNIA... AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EXPECT FUNNELING NW WINDS TO INCREASE DOWN THE LENGTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE TUE AND WED. $$ CHRISTENSEN