000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121553
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE OCT 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 
DISSIPATING 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 08N110W TO ANOTHER LOW 1011 MB 
NEAR 11N124W TO 09N140. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF 03N E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM W QUADRANT OF LOW NEAR 11N124W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM N 
AND 60 NM S OF AXIS W OF 136W. 

...DISCUSSION...

S OF 20N BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...DRIVEN BY LATENT 
HEAT RELEASE FROM CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ W OF 136W AND 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR 11N124W REACHES TO 110W. 
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN...FUELED BY 
LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL 
WAVE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND CONVECTION FROM HURRICANE 
PAULA...CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 85.7W. THE DISTANCE BETWEEN 
THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST 48 
HOURS...RESULTING IN A DEFORMATION OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN THE 
FEATURES. THE DEFORMATION OF THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND RESULT IN A CUTOFF LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...WHICH WILL THEN GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN WITHIN 72 HOURS. 

AT THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE HIGH PRES IS NEAR 40N133W. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...AND LOWER 
PRESSURE OF THE ITCZ...IS SUPPORTING NE TRADES AT 20 KT WITH 
SEAS TO 11 FT OVER THE WATERS FROM 12N TO 20N W OF 123W. 

GAP WINDS...THE CIRCULATION AROUND HURRICANE PAULA WILL INCREASE 
N TO NE WINDS ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN 
INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA 
PASS...WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KT TONIGHT OVER 
AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. AS A COLD FRONT 
REACHES THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WED...WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE 
CHIVELA PASS WILL FURTHER INCREASE. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE 
WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO MINIMAL GALE 
WED...STRENGTHENING TO 30 TO 40 KT WED NIGHT AND CONTINUING 
THROUGH AT LEAST FRI MORNING. 
 
$$
AL