000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062134
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED OCT 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2100 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

09N84W 07N95W 10N110W 09N117W 12N123W 10N130W 9N140W. 
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 06N91W 07N98W 08N102W
08N106W...10N115W 12N119W 15N121W 17N122W...FROM 08N TO 09N
BETWEEN 122W AND 125W...AND WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 129W
FROM 9N TO 10N. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 10N111W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 110W AND 112W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 13N124W 11N126W 09N127W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF MEXICO ALONG 100W TO 14N99W. NO DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS ALONG THE COAST
OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 35N121W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EST OF 140W. A SURFACE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 33N122W TO 31N121W.

GAP WINDS...
UNUSUALLY LONG-DURATION GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS MAINTAINING
A PERSISTENT PUSH OF BOUNDARY LAYER AIR THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. THE SEAS THAT ARE BEING GENERATED BY PERSISTENT 
GALES IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE ESTIMATED TO RANGE FROM
10 FT TO 14 FT. THE GALE WARNING EXISTS WITHIN 45 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 16N94.5W TO 14N95W TO 13N96W INCLUDING THE 
GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC. THE FORECAST IS FOR THE GALE WARNING
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
MT