000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032121
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN OCT 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS FROM 10N86W TO 08N97W TO 10N102W TO 09N110W TO 12N125W TO 
LOW PRES 11N138W 1010 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG N 
OF 07N E OF 82W AND WITHIN 150 NM OF 08.5N87.5W...AND 30 NM 
EITHER SIDE A LINE FROM 08N99W TO 11N103W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF 11N134W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N119W 
TO 20N140W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 19N117W 
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO A CREST AT 14N134W...AND AN UPPER 
RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS N TO A CREST AT 27N110W. A POSITIVE TILT LONG 
WAVE TROUGH DOMINATES N AMERICA WITH ITS SOUTHERN EXTENSION 
EXTENDING SW ACROSS OLD MEXICO FROM 32N87W TO A SMALL NEARLY 
STATIONARY UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF OLD MEXICO AT 
20N105W. THE UPPER TROUGH THEN CONTINUES SW OVER THE E PACIFIC 
TO A BASE AT 10N108W. SOME UPPER MOISTURE IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM 
OF 12N137W. UPPER MOISTURE IS EVAPORATING OVER THE AREA FROM 08N 
TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 108W AND 113W. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER 
LEVELS ARE DRY W OF 110W. 

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA ALONG 15N TO A FAIRLY SHARP CREST AT 15N99W. THE 
ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE S OF THIS UPPER RIDGE HAS BEEN 
ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND OVER THE E 
PACIFIC FROM 07N TO 12N E OF 105W. THE DEBRIS MOISTURE REMAINS 
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE RESULTING IN THE UPPER LEVELS BEING 
SOMEWHAT MOIST OVER THE AREA S OF 17N E OF 104W.

AT THE LOW LEVELS A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N142W TO 21N112W. LONG 
PERIOD NW SWELLS AT 9 TO 12 SECONDS ARE PRODUCING COMBINED SEAS 
TO 11 FT OVER THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 32N118W TO 07N133W TO 
07N140W. CROSS EQUATORIAL FLOW...WITH S TO SW WINDS TO 20 KT 
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA GENERALLY S OF 15N BETWEEN 120W AND 90W. 

GAP WINDS...MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN AND 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ARE EXPECTED TO 
FURTHER INCREASE TO 40 KT ON MON THEN DIMINISH SOME ON TUE. 

$$
NELSON