000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010330
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI 0CT 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.

...ITCZ...

AXIS IS ALONG 10N110W TO 09N120W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM LINE FROM 11N134W TO 11N101W TO 10N109W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS AT 17N136W WITH A RIDGE NE TO 28N134W.
UPPER MOISTURE IS TRAPPED WITHIN 300 NM OF THE ANTICYCLONE.
 A SECOND ANTICYCLONE IS AT 19N112W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 10N123W. 
SEPARATING THESE ANTICYCLONES IS A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONE NEAR 
32N120W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SW TO 20N126W TO 12N124W. AN UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDS S ACROSS OLD MEXICO TO A BASE AT 15N104W. A 
SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 15.5N105.5W WITH CONVECTION ENHANCED WITHIN 
180 NM OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE 
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING W ACROSS 
CENTRAL AMERICA TO A CREST AT 13N95W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM 
CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN...AND DISSIPATING CONVECTION ALONG 
THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 80W TO 86W...IS 
ADVECTED W OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 115W. OTHERWISE THE 
UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY W OF 118W. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE A HIGH PRES IS CENTERED AT 27N135W. A 
SURFACE LOW HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 13N135W BUT IS 
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOON FLOW COVERS THE 
AREA S OF 14N E OF 125W WITH WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT. SUBSIDING NW 
SWELLS ARE PROPAGATING SE THROUGH THE SUBTROPICS AND WILL BE 
REINFORCED ANOTHER NW SWELL TRAIN BEHIND A WEAK THAT WILL STALL 
AND WASH OUT OVER THE NW CORNER.   

GAP WINDS...N WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THROUGH 
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC JUST AFTER SUNRISE FRI MORNING...AND 
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
NELSON