000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180325
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT SEP 18 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...FROM 10N125W TO 7N132W TO
9N140W. A MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM 14N92W TO 12N100W
15N111W TO AN EMBEDDED LOW NEAR 10N125W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION EXISTED FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 101W AND 109W...
AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 120W AND 127W.

SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WAS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM
7N86W TO 6N91W.

...DISCUSSION...

A SHEARED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM 30N132W TO JUST NE OF THE 
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUED TO SHEAR OUT TO 
THE NE IN THE FACE OF A RATHER EXTENSIVE ANTICYCLONE AND RIDGE 
WHICH DOMINATED MOST OF THE EAST PACIFIC AND MEXICO WITH THE 
AXIS GENERALLY ALONG 20N. DRY DEEP LAYERED AIR PERSISTS N OF 
20N. ONLY WEAK SHOWERS WERE NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ IN THIS AREA 
DUE TO THE DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT.

DIFFLUENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE 
ANTICYCLONE/RIDGE NOTED ABOVE WAS ENHANCING SCATTERED CONVECTION 
ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS...FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 101W AND 
109W.  

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A WELL DEVELOPED MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE
UNDER ITCZ. SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT WERE NOTED S OF THE TROUGH
MOST NOTABLY FROM 5N TO 15N BETWEEN 105W AND 128W. THERE WERE
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE LOWS NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 
13N105W...15N113W AND 10N125W. WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LOW 
NEAR 14N115W. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS WERE SIMILAR IN 
TRACKING THE LOWS NEAR 113W AND 125W ENE TOWARDS THE EASTERN 
PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH SUN AT WHICH TIME BROAD TROUGHING
BECOMES ESTABLISHED N OF THE TROUGH AND E OF 120W.

MARINE...
LONG PERIOD SW SWELL OF 14 TO 17 SECONDS WILL ADD TO LOCALLY 
DEVELOPED SEAS IN THE AREA OF THE 20 KT SW WINDS S OF MONSOON 
TROUGH TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE SEAS UP TO 12 OR 13 FT THROUGH THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
AGUIRRE