000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162130
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU SEP 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS FROM 16N97W TO 13N108W TO 13N118W TO 08N128W TO 11N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 103W AND 107W...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS W OF 137W.

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...
RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH AN ANTICYCLONE 
CENTERED NEAR 24N114W TO ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 14N136W. W TO 
SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET 
PREVAILS N OF 27N TO THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO. STRONG EASTERLY 
FLOW AND HIGH VERTICAL SHEARING EFFECTS ARE FOUND S OF 8N ACROSS 
THE ENTIRE BASIN. A BROAD AREA OF LIGHTER E WINDS IS LOCATED N 
OF 8N AND S OF THE RIDGE AXIS THAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE 
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT FOR ANY CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED 
IN THE ITCZ. CURRENTLY A STRING OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS...NEAR 
13N112W...10N124W AND 10N141W...HAVE SCATTERED CONVECTION ALL 
ALONG AN ACTIVE ITCZ AXIS IN ENHANCED SW MONSOON FLOW S OF 11N.

SURFACE...
1022 MB HIGH PRES AT 29N133W EXTENDS RIDGE E TO NEAR 21N115W. 
WEAK COLD FRONT NW OF AREA APPROACHES BASIN PRESSING HIGH PRES 
AND INCREASING WINDS ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA W COAST. RIDGE BREAKS 
DOWN AS HIGH PRESSURE DISSIPATES NEXT 12-24 HRS. VIS SAT IMAGERY 
INDICATES DEVELOPING 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITH EXPOSED LL 
CIRC CENTER NEAR 13N112W. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS LOW PRES 
CENTER NEARLY STATIONARY NEXT 1-2 DAYS AND DEEPENS IT...WITH 
INCREASING SW TO W WINDS TO 25 KT IN ITS SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

MARINE...
SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MENTIONED ABOVE ARE EXPECTED BY WW3 
MODEL TO BUILD TO AROUND 13-14 FT AS SW MONSOON WINDS INTENSIFY.
AREA OF HIGH SEAS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHRINK BY DAY 3-4 UNLESS 
TC DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. N PACIFIC SWELLS AROUND 8 FT EXPECTED TO 
REACH EXTREME NW PORTION OF AREA N OF 29N BY SUN.

$$
MUNDELL