000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041016
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 UTC SAT SEP 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E IS CENTERED NEAR 21.5N 111.3W MOVING 
NORTHWEST AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 1005 
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. REFER 
TO THE FINAL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC AND THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER 
MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM WESTERN QUADRANT. THIS SYSTEM IS 
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TODAY. 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E IS CENTERED NEAR 16.4N 95.4W MOVING 
NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 1004 
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. REFER 
TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER 
MIATCPEP1/WTPZ31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE MEXICAN COAST FROM 95W 
TO 103W. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN 
MEXICO TODAY AND DISSIPATE. 

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 14N103W TO 10N130W 
TO 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE 
AXIS FROM 121W TO 126W. 

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...SUBTROPICAL JET STARTS NEAR 30N140W...AND IS BETWEEN A 
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 31N 
122W. THE ANTICYCLONE IS DISPLACED NORTH OF ITS USUAL POSITION...
AND AS A RESULT MODERATE EAST WINDS PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. THESE WINDS ARE CAUSING TD 10E TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN
FROM VERTICAL SHEAR. WINDS OVER TD 11E ARE BROADLY DIFFLUENT EAST
OF 92W AND ARE ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST 
OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH THE TD. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT BY 36 HOURS A TUTT CELL IS 
FORECAST TO BREAK FREE FROM THE UPPER TROUGH AND HEAD EASTWARD 
WHILE THE HIGH ACCELERATES WESTWARD...CAUSING THE JET TO WEAKEN. 
THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RESUME A NORMAL POSITION TUESDAY.

SURFACE... 
A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 32N13W TO 19N127W. SCATTEROMETER 
DATA SOUTHERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE ITCZ AND WELL DEVELOPED MONSOON
FLOW EAST OF 105W FEEDING INTO TD 11E ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO.
GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 11E MOVING INLAND TODAY THEN SOME OF THE
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND VORTICITY IS SPUN UP AS A LOW IN THE GULF 
OF MEXICO AROUND MONDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE ITCZ WILL 
BECOME CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WEST OF 
110W WHILE THE STRONG SW MONSOON WINDS SUBSIDE EAST OF 110W.

MARINE...GALES ARE EXPECTED OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST 
THIS WEEKEND...WHICH WILL GENERATE SHORT PERIOD SWELLS AND SEAS 
TO 15 FEET WEST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. 10 TO 12 FT SWELLS ARE 
EXPECTED TO REACH 32N BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO 
THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

$$
MUNDELL