000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192124
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU AUG 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC. 

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 12N98W 
TO 10N110W TO 09N130W TO 08N140W. FURTHER E... S TO SW CROSS 
EQUATORIAL FLOW DOMINATES THE PAC WATERS GENERALLY S OF 16N E OF 
98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 
102W AND 106W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS.     

...DISCUSSION...

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 
31N100W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS WSW TO CENTRAL BAJA NEAR 
27N114W TO THE EPAC NEAR 25N133W. ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW 
IS N OF 10N W OF 100W. DEEP MOISTURE IS ALONG THE COAST OF 
MEXICO N OF 10N E OF 115W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 10N W OF 
115W. ALOFT OVER THE TROPICS...FROM EQUATOR TO 10N NE TO E FLOW 
IS NOTED WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE E OF 130W.  

SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 
32N114W TO 23N108W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH FROM 21N TO 27N BETWEEN 
107W AND 111W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF 
SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM 19N107W TO 15N100W TO 12N92W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N TO 20N 
BETWEEN 102W AND 108W...AND FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 93W AND 97W. 
GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PRIMARY SURFACE 
FEATURES AND ITS ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
EAST OF 98W...S TO SW CROSS EQUATORIAL MONSOON WINDS ARE NOTED 
BY SCATTEROMETER DATA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 
PANAMA FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W. SEAS OF 9 FT HAVE 
REACHED THE COAST OF PANAMA. THIS LONG PERIOD SWELL IS EXPECTED 
TO BRING SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT TO THE REMAINDER OF THE COAST OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA S OF 20N BY SAT MORNING.

$$
FORMOSA