000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052155
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU AUG 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N101W AND IS MOVING W AT 10 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES WITHIN 
120 TO 150 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NE QUADRANT. ADDITIONAL 
CONVECTION IS DISPLACED WELL TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER 
WITHIN 120 NM OF AN ARC FROM 19N105W TO 17N107W TO 16N105W. 
SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. 
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THIS 
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE 
NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS LOW BECOMING 
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS 
SYSTEM.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 10N84W TO 09N91W TO 14N99W TO 14N104W TO 12N107W 
TO 14N113W TO 11N120W TO 06N130W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 91W...WITHIN 180 
NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 93W...AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 123W AND 128W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE NE WATERS NEAR 22N121W 
WITH A SECOND ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 26N139W. AN INVERTED 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 16N144W 
AND SEPARATES THE TWO ANTICYCLONES AS IT CONTINUES TO A COL NEAR 
THROUGH 23N130W...THEN CONNECTS TO A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THROUGH 
30N122W. THE LARGER AREA N OF 20N W OF 115W WAS CHARACTERIZED BY 
MODERATE TO STRONG DRY AIR ALOFT AND STABLE CONDITIONS. 

A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 19N115W WAS MOVING W AT 15 TO 
20 KT AND WAS WRAPPING MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CIRCULATION.
AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE CIRCULATION TO A SMALLER 
CIRCULATION ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 24N107W. 

EASTERLY/ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA IN THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 10N. UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE RESULTING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION IS BEING ADVECTED TO THE 
WEST AS A RESULT OF THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE EARLIER NEAR 16N109W 
HAS DISSIPATED. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N125W TO 13N123W WITH 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM W OF 
TROUGH AXIS FROM 08N TO 12N. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES 
THE AREA N OF 18N W OF 115W.

CROSS EQUATORIAL LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS OF 16-18 SECONDS 
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN MAINLY S OF 
10N AND W OF 90W. THE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS 
THE BASIN WITH OPEN OCEAN SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT THROUGH 48 HOURS.

$$
COBB