000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121617 AAA
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUL 12 2010

...UPDATED E OF 100W TO INCLUDE WIND FIELD WITH 1008 MB LOW...
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 9N ALONG 90W IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE IS ENTERING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD AREA OF 
LOW PRES THAT COVERS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED BELOW UNDER ITCZ. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER GUATEMALA AND THE WESTERN SECTION OF EL 
SALVADOR.

THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST CROSSING
THE BORDER OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...MOVING W ABOUT 16 KT.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ARE OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE COSTA RICAN AND PANAMANIAN BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN COSTA RICA AND
NORTHERN PANAMA. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ELSEWHERE 
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND 
PANAMA THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS AS VERY DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
TO THE E OF THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES REMAINS IN PLACE.

...ITCZ...

THE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N86W 10N99W 8N107W 10N117W 13N130W 
7N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 90W-93W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W96W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 100W...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING SW IS JUST N OF 
THE AREA NEAR 34N126W WITH A TROUGH SW TO 25N129W. THE SURFACE 
REELECTION IS ANALYZED AS A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 33N124W WITH A 
TROUGH SW TO 28N131W TO 26N140W. MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE 
MID/UPPER LOW TO MOVE TO NEAR 31N132W IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...WHILE 
THE SURFACE LOW DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES SE.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A MID/UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE LOCATED E OF THE AREA OVER FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS WNW TO 
ACROSS THE SW U.S. AND TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. A SMALL UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYLONE MOVING W 15 KT IS NEAR 23N125W WITH A RIDGE SSE 
TO 15N122W. ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD 
INTO THE AREA THROUGH 29N140W...AND REACHES TO NEAR 23N131W.

SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MOSTLY MODERATE 
SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 120W MAINTAINING RATHER 
STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AS EVIDENT BY THE AREAS OF 
OVERCAST TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS N OF 20N. THE IMAGERY 
ALSO SHOWS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING WESTWARD TO THE E OF 
110W.

OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...A MID/UPPER LEVEL 
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N115W TO 18N118W TO 14N122W.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT N OF 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W
...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MOSITURE SPREADING NW OVER
AND ALONG THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS NEAR 25N125W WITH A RIDGE
SE TO 22N115W. WEAK HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 21N AND W OF 
117W.W. A NEARLY WEAK 1010 MB LOW IS NEAR 13N130W. SLIGHT 
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 125W AND 139W IS 
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
180 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW. UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS 
MOSITURE FROM THIS CONVECTION IS BEING ADVECTED WESTWARD WITH 
THE UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES TO NEAR 139W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO 
WEAKEN THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED INITIAL NE-E 
WINDS OF 20-25 KT FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 48 
HRS.

ELSEWHERE...WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS EXTEND FROM 12N106W TO 16N108W
...AND FROM 14N103W TO 17N102W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
ALONG THE TROUGHS.

E OF 100W...UPDATED
A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION E OF THE AREA OVER THE 
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDS A TROUGH W TO 21N98W. TO ITS 
S...A SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE NORTHERN 
YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE ELY FLOW IS PRESENT TO 
THE S OF THE ANTICYCLONE...AND ARE ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS 
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP CONVECTION RELATED TO THE BROAD 
AREA OF LOW PRES OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA W TO BEYOND 100W. AT THE 
SURFACE A 1009 MB LOW IS NEAR 12N96W MOVING WNW 6 KT. THE LOW
MAY DEVELOP SOME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT TRACKS WNW.
WINDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND TO WITHIN 180 NM OF THE 
LOW IN 24 HRS...AND TO PERHAPS 20-30 KT WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW
IN THE N AND NE QUADRANTS IN 48 HRS WITH SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT AS
A BROAD AREA OF S-SW WINDS 20-25 KT WINDS THEN BECOMES EVIDENT
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE LOW IN THE S SEMICIRCLE.

S TO SW 15-20 KT WINDS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 90W-100W ARE EXPECTED 
TO CHANGE LITTLE IN 24 HRS...THEN EXPAND NORTHWARD TO 14N IN 48 
HRS AS THE LOW NEAR 12N96W INTENSIFIES. 

$$
AGUIRRE