000 AXPZ20 KNHC 110233 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN JUL 11 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 09N84W TO 06N91W TO 09N105W TO 12N127W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 126W AND 130W...AND FROM 08N TO 12N E OF 90W TO THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. ...DISCUSSION... ...TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR JULY TO CONTINUE OVERALL DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... W OF 110W... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED ALONG THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER NEAR THE TEXAS BIG BEND WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WWD ACROSS NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA THEN SW TO A SMALLER ANTICYCLONE MOVING N 10 KT NEAR 27N130W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES WSW TO NEAR 25N140W. A SMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...ABOUT 90 NM IN DIAMETER JUST W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 30N115W WAS UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES NW AT 10 KT. AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS W OF THE REGION NEAR 15N147W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NE TO A COL NEAR 24N145W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE NRN PACIFIC SW TO THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE AREA WITH AN ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 31N143W. THE CIRCULATION CONTINUED MOVING W OF THE AREA. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MAINTAINING RATHER STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AS EVIDENT IN THE PATCHES OF MOSTLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS NOTED. THE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS ENTERING THE FAR EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THIS AREA E OF ABOUT 115W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1033 MB HIGH IS NW OF THE REGION NEAR 40N148W WITH A RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 30N130W TO 21N115W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 7N130W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 11N130W...AND N TO 15N131W DRIFTING TO THE W. THE FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 26N129W AND A SMALLER ONE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR 2N125W HAS BECOME DIFFLUENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AND LOW RESULTING IN AN ENHANCEMENT OF ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. E OF 110W... A SERIES OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS ARE LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 23N93W AND MEXICO NEAR 20N105W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE EASTERN CIRCULATION HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING S OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE TEXAS BIG BEND IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL NE TO E FLOW OVER MEXICO WHICH EXTENDS W AND SW TO ALONG 110W. UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE E COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA CONTINUES TO SPREAD WESTWARD TO NEAR 92W. NW WINDS OF 20 KT ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 24N...BUT WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. SE TO S WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS S OF 6N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W WITH TO 8 FT IN S SWELL...THEN OVER THE FORECAST OVER THE WATERS S OF 8N BETWEEN 80W AND 110W IN 48 HRS. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL SHOULD RESULT IN SEAS TO POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 8 FT ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS AS FORECAST BY LATEST WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE. $$ COBB