000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041508
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUL 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 11N86W 9N110W 7N125W 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 101W TO 
111W.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 7N ALONG 84W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 
81W-87W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 23N130W 
WITH RIDGE EXTENDING NE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN 
MEXICO TO W TEXAS. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH VERY DRY 
STABLE AIR AT MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N W 
OF 115W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO TO 12N100W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW
IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ SW OF THE TROUGH 
FROM 81W-87W. ALSO IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 9N126W. A FEW SHOWERS ARE SW OF
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 17N W OF 120W. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 
110W. LONG PERIOD S-SW SWELL TRAIN FROM SRN HEMISPHERE SPREAD 
NORTHWARD THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA. THE SWELL 
IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY TUE. THE LARGE SWELL MAY RESULT IN 
LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG EXPOSED 
SHOALS...REEFS AND BEACHES. 

$$
DGS