000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020359
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JUL 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0145 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 94W IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH. SEE 
BELOW. 

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N78W TO 07N85W TO 10N96W TO 
06N118W TO 07N140W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ 
ALONG 94W/95W FROM 07N TO 14N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM PANAMA CANAL TO 
GULF OF FONSECA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 86W TO 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 101W TO 107W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC IS LOCATED NEAR 20N135W DOMINATING 
THE REGION W OF 115W. THE UPPER LEVELS W OF 110W ARE VERY DRY 
AND RELATIVELY STABLE...WHILE THERE IS AN ABUNDANCE OF MID/UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN E OF 110W PARTLY DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF T.S. 
ALEX THAT IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...AND THE MONSOONAL 
FLOW.   

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS LOCATED WELL NW OF 
THE AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS 
ROUGHLY COVERING THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 120W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS 
OF CELIA...IS NO LONGER MAINTAINING WINDS OF 20 KT...BUT SEAS TO 
8FT REMAIN W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN AREA OF NE WINDS OVER THE 
NE PORTION OF THE PAC WATERS HAVE REACHED A PEAK AND WILL 
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN. THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO 
EXPAND S OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

LARGE SWELLS FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE 
SOUTH WATERS PARTICULARLY S OF 10N AND WILL EXPAND N OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

$$
PAW