000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011546
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUL 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 04N TO 12N ALONG 94W MOVING W AT 10 KT. 
POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY DUE TO ABUNDANT MONSOONAL FLOW 
OVER THAT AREA. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY HOWEVER 
INDICATES ELEVATED VALUES IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. 

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N82W TO 10N95W TO 08N110W TO 
09N125W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 82W AND 87W...AND 
FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 92W AND 105W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 70 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 04N TO 06N.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM SE ARIZONA ACROSS CENTRAL 
BAJA CALIFORNIA THEN SW TO NEAR 23N125W. SE OF THE UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH...THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTERED NEAR 20N117W. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED 
NEAR 20N135W HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO THE FAR NW PART OF 
MEXICO NEAR 31N114W. S OF 18N NE TO E UPPER LEVEL WINDS PREVAIL. 
THE UPPER LEVELS N OF 15N AND W OF 115W ARE VERY DRY AND 
RELATIVELY STABLE...WHILE AN ABUNDANCE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS SEEN IS OF 115W DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF T.S. ALEX 
MOVING WWD ACROSS MAINLAND MEXICO...AND THE MONSOONAL FLOW.   

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED NW OF THE AREA 
THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS ROUGHLY 
COVERING THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF 
CELIA...IS MAINTAINING NE WINDS 20 KT WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE 
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS CORROBORATED THESE 
WIND SPEEDS. A COUPLE OF ASCAT PASSES ALSO SHOWED AN AREA OF 
NELY WINDS OF UP TO 20 KT NW OF LINE FROM 30N118W TO 21N140W. 
THIS AREA OF NE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND OVER THE NORTHERN 
WATERS AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS A BIT WHILE DRIFTING 
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. 

LARGE SWELLS FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE 
SOUTH WATERS PARTICULARLY S OF 10N. ANOTHER ROUND OF CROSS- 
EQUATORIAL LONG-PERIOD SWELLS...WAVE PERIODS BETWEEN 17 TO 19 
SECONDS...WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF UP TO 12 FT ARE JUST 
ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EASTWARD 
REACHING 20N...AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA BY EARLY SAT.  
 
$$
GR