000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291541
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUN 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL LOWS....

THE REMNANT LOW PRES OF CELIA IS QUASI STATIONARY NEAR 15.5N 
123.5W WITH AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1008 MB. 
WINDS ARE 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM OF CENTER. SHOWERS ARE 
INDICATED WITHIN 60 NM OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 NM 
OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NW AND 
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. 

THE REMNANT LOW PRES OF OF DARBY IS CENTERED NEAR 15N96W WITH AN 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006 MB. SCATTERED TO 
NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM SW QUADRANT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC 
AND WITHIN 100 NM OF THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 98W AND 101W.
THE PRES GRADIENT SE OF DARBY IS SUPPORTING SW TO W WINDS AT 20 
TO 25 KT WITHIN 210 NM S SEMICIRCLE. DARBY SHOULD WEAKEN TO AN 
OPEN TROUGH LATER TODAY THEN EXTEND NE TO TROPICAL CYCLONE ALEX 
LOCATED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE NW IN TANDEM 
WITH ALEX OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT 
RANGE ARE EXPECTED SE OF THE DARBY REMNANT TROUGH. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA THROUGH 
COSTA RICA INTO THE EPAC TO NEAR 7N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS. 

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N78W 09N84W THEN RESUMES AT 
13N98W TO 11N120W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM N 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 130W AND 138W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N116W 
THEN CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 20N123W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A 
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM 30N124W TO 
25N134W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 21N132W WITH A 
RIDGE AMPLIFYING NE TO BEYOND 31N125W. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS SW 
TO OVER THE ITCZ AT 10N147W AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG 
THE ITCZ AXIS MAINLY BETWEEN 130W AND 138W. ANOTHER UPPER 
ANTICYCLONE IS SITUATED NEAR 22N108W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW 
TO JUST TO THE NE OF THE REMNANTS OF CELIA WHICH CONTINUES TO 
HAVE A WELL DEFINED CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. UPPER NELY 
WINDS DOMINATES THE AREA E OF 110W. 

AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS W TO E ROUGHLY ALONG 
24N W OF 115W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES 
ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE NW 20 KT WINDS 
WITHIN 300 NM OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA WITH THIS AREA 
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS EVENTUALLY MERGING 
WITH THE LOW LEVEL N FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT TROUGH OF 
DARBY. BEHIND THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECT NLY 
WINDS OF 20 KT AND BUILDING SEAS TO 10 FT IN N SWELL.

CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE PAC 
WATERS S OF 12N BETWEEN 80W AND 115W. THE AREA AFFECTED BY THESE 
S SWELLS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO THE ENTIRE AREA W OF 80W AND 
TO THE SE OF A LINE FROM 17N105W TO 07N120W TO 00N140W IN ABOUT 
48 HOURS.

$$
GR