000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200327 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN JUN 20 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... AT 20/0300 UTC... TROPICAL STORM BLAS IS CENTERED AT 17.0N 111.3W MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CONVECTION WITH BLAS HAS BECOME LESS CIRCULAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THAT BLAS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 111W AND 112W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 110W AND 113W. TROPICAL STORM CELIA IS CENTERED NEAR 12.1N 98.7W AT 09/0900 UTC MOVING WSW OR 255 DEG AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CELIA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS UNDERGOING A RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH SOME VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SCATTERED MODERATE STRONG CONVECTION COVERS AREA FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 97W AND 101W...AND WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE 09N100W TO 12N102W. ...TROPICAL WAVE... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W N OF 06N MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN WAVE AXIS AND 86W. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED 08N88W TO 05N108W THEN RESUMES AT 10N110W TO 08N114W TO 09N125W TO 07N140W. SURFACE TROUGH FROM 11N128W TO 07N133W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 129W AND 135W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ AXIS FROM 87W TO 90W AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS 100W TO 102W. ...DISCUSSION... UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE REGION WITH SW TO W UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 20N130W AND DOMINATES THE N WATERS MAINLY N OF 20N. THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DEEP TROPICS TO THE NW BAJA. OTHERWISE... SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS ABUNDANT MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITHIN THE RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NE TO NEAR 23N122W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER FAR NE MEXICO/S TEXAS NEAR THE BORDER WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO THE TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THEN N OF TROPICAL STORM BLAS. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO THE E OF BLAS IS IMPACTING TROPICAL STORM BLAS CAUSING SOME SHEAR. AT THE SURFACE...A 1034 MB HIGH LOCATED NW OF AREA EXTENDS A RIDGE SE COVERING ROUGHLY THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 120W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER THE SW CONUS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF 20 KT WINDS OFF THE COAST OF BAJA PENINSULA. ALSO EXPECT THE PRES GRADIENT TO INCREASE BETWEEN BLAS AND THIS RIDGE AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE W. THE AREA OF TRADE WINDS TO 20 KT HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN AREA. ONLY MINOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE AREAS OF WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE SE AND CENTRAL REGION. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 KT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS OVER THE SE BUT COULD BE SLIGHTER HIGHER NEAR DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ. $$ PAW