000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191004 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT JUN 19 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE.... TROPICAL STORM BLAS IS CENTERED AT 16.4N 109.1W AT 0900 UTC MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. DURING THE NIGHT VERY DEEP CONVECTION IN A LARGE ALMOST OVAL SHAPE PATTERN DEVELOPED WITH BLAS AS THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE REMAINS LOCATED TUCKED UNDERNEATH THE NE EDGE OF THE CLOUD CANOPY WITH NE WINDS ALOFT ABOVE THE CYCLONE. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER EXCEPT WITHIN 150 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT. BLAS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES IN A GENERAL W TO NW MOTION AND EVENTUALLY OVER COOLER WATER WITH A MUCH STABLE ENVIRONMENT AROUND IT. A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 13N97W MOVING WNW AROUND 7 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NW AND N QUADRANTS...AND ALSO WITHIN 45 NM OF 12N91W AND 30 NM OF 5N78W. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AS CONFIRMED IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY WHERE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED AS ORGANIZING INTO BANDING FEATURES AROUND THE CENTER. WITH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEARING FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...THE LOW COLD FORM INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT CONTINUES IN A WNW TRACK. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 3N81W NE ACROSS CENTRAL PANAMA...AND INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN MOVING W 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE WAVE TO THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 9N83W 6N94W 5N105W...THEN RESUMES AT 12N104W 9N112W 9N120W 9N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 84W-90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 9N126W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 32N120W...AND STRETCHES SE TO 24N116W. A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONES ARE NOTED NEAR 20N131W AND 15N120W WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE AREA W OF THE TROUGH. A MOISTURE PLUME IS SPREADING INTO THE AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN ANTICYCLONE...AND EXTENDS N TO 30N...AND IS ALREADY REACHING NORTHEASTWARD TO ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA. OTHERWISE...SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS ABUNDANT MODERATE SUBSIDENCE LEADING TO STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION TO THE NW OF THE TROUGH. A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER FAR NE MEXICO NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER WITH A RIDGE SW TO JUST N OF TROPICAL STORM BLAS. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO THE S OF THE RIDGE IS IMPACTING TROPICAL STORM BLAS WHILE ADVECTING DEBRIS MOSITURE WESTWARD TO JUST E OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES LIGHTER E OF ABOUT 105W ALLOWING FOR THE LOW NEAR 13N97W TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A 1034 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 38N143W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO 28N127W TO 21N116W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. THE PRES GRADIENT TO THE S OF THE RIDGE IS ALLOWING FOR NE TO E WINDS TO 20 KT FROM 15N-27N W OF 129W... WHILE THE GRADIENT TO THE NE OF THE RIDGE BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER THE SW U.S. IS ALLOWING FOR N TO NE 20 KT WINDS N OF 26N BETWEEN 117W AND 129W WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN A N SWELL. ONLY MINOR CHANGES IS EXPECTED WITH THESE AREAS OF WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS. THE N SWELL SHOULD SUBSIDE SOME BY THEN. WITH RESPECT TO THE MARINE ASPECT OF THE REGION...CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN SEAS TO 8 FT S OF 8N BETWEEN 80W AND 89W...AND S OF 6N BETWEEN 94W AND 106W. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO S TO SW AT 20 KT IN ABOUT 48 HRS FROM 2N TO 8N AND BETWEEN 81W AND 90W...BUT COULD BE SLIGHTER HIGHER NEAR DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ. $$ AGUIRRE