000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022142
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUN 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W N OF 01N IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FOUND BETWEEN 150 NM AND 300 
NM W OF THE WAVE N OF 07N AND BETWEEN 90 NM AND 270 NM E OF WAVE 
N OF 04N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE 
EXTENDS INTO PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. 

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 13N80W 
TO 09N110W TO 11N117W TO 06N126W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 91W AND 
97W. MORE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 45 NM AND 
150 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 116W AS WELL AS 
WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 132W AND 139W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
NEAR 25N110W TO 23N130W. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E AND 
AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...ALLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY NEAR 29N135W TO SLIDE ALONG 29N/30N TO 
122W BY THU AFTERNOON AND BUILD AS IT DRIFTS NE TO 32N118W FRI 
AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPSTREAM TROUGHING DIGS FROM THE TEXAS COAST 
THROUGH CABO CORRIENTES...MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...1024 MB HIGH 
PRES NEAR 28N142W WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE 
FORECAST AREA TO NEAR 28N134W BY THU AFTERNOON. THE HIGH IS 
BEING HELD SOUTH OF 30N BY THE COLD FRONT PASSING ALONG ITS 
NORTHERN EDGE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE CHASED EASTWARD 
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THU BY A SYSTEM CURRENTLY PASSING N OF HAWAII 
THAT WILL RACE EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WINDS AND SEAS 
WILL INCREASE EARLY THU OVER NE WATERS AS THE COLD FRONT 
CURRENTLY PASSING N OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH MOVES INTO THE 
WESTERN U.S. AND THE GRADIENT BUILDS BETWEEN ITS LOW PRES AND 
THE EASTWARD-SHIFTED SUBTROPICAL SURFACE HIGH. TRADE WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT LATE THU AS THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS 
AND MOVES E. THE SURFACE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE 
FROM THU EVENING THROUGH FRI...WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT 
HELD N OF THE AREA AND 1022 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 28N132W.

A STRING OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONES NEAR 15N94W...12N110W...AND 
12N128W HAVE BANDED TOGETHER TO FORM A FLAT AND BROAD 
ANTICYCLONIC GYRE OVER THE TROPICAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST 
AREA. A 50-70 KT WESTERLY UPPER JET LIES BETWEEN THIS GYRE AND 
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH OVER N WATERS. MEANWHILE...A 
20-30 KT EASTERLY JET CAN BE FOUND IN THE AREA S OF THE GYRE
GENERALLY S OF 10N E OF 120W. THE HIGH WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED 
WITH THESE UPPER JETS HAS LIMITED THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP 
CONVECTION TO ALONG THE ITCZ. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W IS DETAILED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION 
ABOVE. THE OTHER PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS A 1012 MB LOW 
PRES SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WAS FOUND WITHIN 180 NM W QUADRANT OF THE LOW.THE 1756 UTC ASCAT 
PASS SHOWED SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING NE TO SW THROUGH A 
CENTER NEAR 10N118W AND SHOWED THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE ONLY TO 
20 KT WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE 
W AT 5-10 KT OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND DISSIPATE ON FRI.

$$
SCHAUER