000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261555
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAY 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CHARACTERIZED BY A LOW TO MID LEVEL 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED 1006 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 
14N95W HAS POOLED DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SW MEXICO. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM NW SEMICIRCLE AND 210 NM S AND SE 
SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. MEANWHILE...NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION ALSO NOTED OFFSHORE WITHIN 90 NM OF 12N90W AND 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM 
OF COAST BETWEEN 86W AND 91W. THERE IS A MODERATE PROBABILITY 
FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 
48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS 
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING 
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 10N85.5W TO 
10.5N88.5W TO 06N111W TO 08.5N128W TO 06.5N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 97W 
AND 125W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
A FLAT BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE FAR N PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N. A 60-80 KT SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM 
WHICH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 15N140W AND CONTINUES E-NE TO CENTRAL 
MEXICO. 

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 07N140W TO AN 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 12N118W THEN NORTHEASTWARD TO 
SOUTHERN MEXICO. 

AT THE SURFACE...1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 31N153W HAS 
A RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE RIDGE IS 
PRODUCING A TIGHT ENOUGH PRES GRADIENT TO SUPPORT NE TO E 20-25 
KT TRADE WINDS IN AN AREA FROM 08N TO 18N W OF 125W. THE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SAME RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER MEXICO IS 
PRODUCING 20-25 KT NW WINDS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE W COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE AREA E OF 
118W TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH 
NO CHANGE IN WIND SPEED. 

ANOTHER TRAIN OF LONG PERIOD...17-19 SECOND...SWELLS WITH DEEP 
WATER WAVE HEIGHTS OF 7-9 FT HAS ARRIVED ALONG THE COAST OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO AND WILL PUSH FURTHER N...IMPACTING 
THE SRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER 
TODAY. S TO SW WIND WAVES ON TOP OF THE EXISTING LONG PERIOD 
SWELL IS PUSHING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO 12 FT TO THE SOUTH 
OF THE LOW PRES AND AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER DESCRIBED AS A 
SPECIAL FEATURE ABOVE. 

$$
AL/SCHAUER