000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161524
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAY 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W FROM 04N TO 11N MOVING W NEAR 
10 KT. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS 
FROM 05N TO 08N.  

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 10N85W TO 08N960W TO 11N107W TO 08N117W 
TO 07N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED 
FROM 03N TO 08N E OF 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 107W AND 
112W...FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 128W AND 132W...AND FROM 06N TO 
09N W OF 134W. SEVERAL WEAK TROUGHS ARE ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH 
ALONG THE ITCZ. 

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 105W...
A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED N OF 25N BETWEEN 
123W TO JUST BEYOND 140W WITH THE AXIS ALONG 132W. A JET DIVES 
SE THROUGH 32N134W TO NEAR 30N130W. THE TROUGH IS MOVING E ABOUT 
10 KT. A WELL-DEFINED JET CUTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 18N140W TO 21N120W TO THE MEXICAN COAST 
AT 20N105W. SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATE SPEEDS OF UP TO 
80 KT ALONG THE JET AXIS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE UP TO FIVE DEGREES N OF THE JET. WINDS ALOFT ARE 
MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS S OF 12N TO THE 
EQUATOR. AT THE SURFACE A 1022 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 28N140W.  
THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A 
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FAR NW WATERS. FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 125W 
NE WINDS ARE 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

E OF 105W...
WINDS ALOFT TURN ANTICYCLONICALLY E OF 105W WITH SPEEDS FROM 25 
TO 40 KT. OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO NE TO E WINDS ARE 20 KT WITH 
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.

$$
CAB