000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090327
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAY 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 05N77W TO 04N97W TO 08N110W TO 04N130W TO 05N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 
AXIS W OF 118W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS S INTO BASIN FROM 32N128W TO 
08N140W.  SWATH OF TROPICAL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM ITCZ 
RIDE ON WEAKENING 55 KT JET CORE NE BUT IS TOTALLY DECOUPLED 
FROM LARGER FLOW OF MOISTURE PRESENTLY REACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA 
AND NORTHWEST MEXICO.  AIR MASS W OF TROUGH IS DRY DUE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE.  DOWNSTREAM...BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE 
AT 17N97W MAINTAINS DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS UNDER MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE E OF 115W BETWEEN 25N AND ITCZ.  FINALLY... 
FAST WEAKENING TROUGH FROM CENTRAL NICARAGUA TO GULF OF PANAMA. 
PREVIOUS SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION HAS DWINDLE AS DRY SUBSIDING 
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT CURTAILS UPWARD MOTION.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES CENTER 1032 MB WELL NW OF 
BASIN HAS BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTEND SE TO 15N112W.  MODERATE TO 
FRESH N-NW WINDS OCCURRING ALONG BAJA PENINSULA W COAST AND 
FRESH NE TRADES FROM 06N-26N W OF 120W.  ASSOCIATED N AND NE 
SWELLS MIXING WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL OVER MOST OF WATERS 
ALONG E OF 120W.  FURTHER S...LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL CROSS 
THE EQUATOR NORTHWARD FROM 100W-130W BEGINNING LATE MON.  

GAP WINDS...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS SURGING ACROSS GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MON BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10 
FT ALONG 10N TO ALONG 95W EARLY NEXT WEEK.

$$
WALLY BARNES