000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082156
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAY 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 06N78W TO 06N93W TO 09N105W TO 04N127W TO 05N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FLARING E OF 82W 
FROM 04N-06N.  SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 
107W-116W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W OF 121W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS S INTO BASIN FROM 32N130W TO 
10N140W.  SWATH OF TROPICAL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM ITCZ 
RIDE ON 60 KT JET CORE NE BUT IS TOTALLY DECOUPLED FROM LARGER 
FLOW OF MOISTURE PRESENTLY REACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 
NORTHWEST MEXICO.  AIR MASS W OF TROUGH IS DRY DUE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE.  DOWNSTREAM...BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE 
AT 15N95W MAINTAINS DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS UNDER MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE E OF 115W BETWEEN 25N AND ITCZ.  FINALLY... 
UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF VORTEX IN CENTRAL NICARAGUA HAS TROUGH 
EXTEND TO GULF OF PANAMA WHERE SURFACE TROUGH TAKES ADVANTAGE OF 
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG DEEP CONVECTION E OF 82W.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES CENTER 1033 MB WELL NW OF 
BASIN HAS BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTEND SE TO 15N110W.  MODERATE TO 
FRESH N-NW WINDS OCCURRING ALONG BAJA PENINSULA W COAST AND 
FRESH NE TRADES FROM 05N-25N W OF 118W.  ASSOCIATED N AND NE 
SWELLS MIXING WITH CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL OVER MOST OF WATERS 
ALONG E OF 120W.  FURTHER S...LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL CROSS 
THE EQUATOR NORTHWARD FROM 100W-130W BEGINNING LATE MON.  

GAP WINDS...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS SURGING ACROSS GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MON BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10 
FT ALONG 10N TO ALONG 95W EARLY NEXT WEEK.

$$
WALLY BARNES