000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080323
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT MAY 08 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 06N77W TO 06N93W TO 09N100W TO 10N118W TO 04N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS OF EACH OF 
THREE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN ITCZ MENTIONED BELOW.  ISOLATED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS W OF 133W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH ENTERING NW CORNER OF BASIN HAS 
SHORT WAVE TROUGH RIDING NE NEAR 28N129W.  JET CORE 65 KT JUST 
DOWNSTREAM OF AXIS ADVECTS MOIST AIR MASS NE UNTO NORTHERN HALF 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BUT CARRIES LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  
BROAD COMPLEX ANTICYCLONE WITH DUAL GYRES...ONE AT 16N104W AND 
SECOND AT 15N96W...HAS WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE TRAPPED BETWEEN 
THEM MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER LARGE AREA OF 
BASIN S OF 25N E OF 110W.  WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER 
CENTRAL NICARAGUA HAS TROUGH EXTEND TO 00N88W EFFECTIVELY 
CUTTING OFF INFLOW OF MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS INTO ITCZ.  

...AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES 1032 MB WELL NW OF BASIN HAS RIDGE EXTEND SE TO 
18N109W REPLACING PREVIOUS ONE THAT DISSIPATED EARLIER. 
FRESH NE TRADES SW OF RIDGE AXIS W OF 130W AND FRESH TO STRONG 
NW ALONG CALIFORNIA COAST EXPAND IN AREA AND MERGE WITHIN 48 HRS.

WEAK TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ITCZ ALONG 126W FROM 05N-11N SHOWS NO 
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND IS FIGHTING HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT 
...SO ITS CHANCES OF DEVELOPING ARE SMALL.  SECOND TROUGH ALONG 
115W FROM 08N-12N LIES UNDER UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE WITH 
AREA OF DIFFLUENT WIND ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION.  
FUTURE DOES NOT LOOK PROMISING FOR TROUGH AS ENVIRONMENT ALOFT 
IS TURNING ADVERSE WITHIN 12-24 HRS.  THIRD TROUGH ALONG 105W 
FROM 07N-10N ALSO UNDER FAVORABLE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED 
TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DURING NEXT 24 HRS.

MODERATE TO LARGE NE SWELLS PROPAGATING SW ARE MIXING WITH CROSS 
EQUATORIAL SW SWELL OVER MOST OF THE WATERS E OF 128W.   

GAP WINDS...ATLC HIGH PRES AND REBUILDING RIDGE FORCE FRESH E 
TRADES ACROSS CARIBBEAN CROSSING INTO GULF OF PAPAGAYO SAT THEN 
EXPAND IN AREA AND INCREASE TO STRONG BREEZE SUN.

$$
WALLY BARNES