000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032158
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 08N81W TO 05N93W TO 08N105W TO 
03N120W TO 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION PERSISTS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
07N78W TO 05N81W TO 07N86W...DISSIPATING WITHIN 90 NM OF 
08N105W...AND FLARING INTERMITTENTLY WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
A LINE FROM 03N112W TO 04N136W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER CYCLONE HAS CUT OFF NEAR 23N133W AND IS DROPPING S INTO 
AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 07N BETWEEN 
137W AND 118W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED W OF THE AREA 
NEAR 10N148W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO A CREST NEAR 
33N140W. UPPER MOISTURE IS JUST BEGINNING TO SPILL ACROSS THE 
RIDGE INTO THE AREA N OF 20N ALONG 140W. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER 
LEVELS APPEAR VERY DRY N OF 07N W OF 123W AND N OF 15N E OF 123W.

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM 16N94W TO A SHARP 
CREST AT 05N122W. E PACIFIC ITCZ CONVECTION IS ENHANCED UNDER 
THIS RIDGE FROM COLOMBIA TO 120W. RESULTANT DEBRIS MOISTURE 
FANS OUT OVER THE AREA S OF 10N WITH SOME OF THE MOISTURE 
SPREADING S OF THE EQUATOR TO THE E OF 112W. SOME OF THE 
MOISTURE SPREADS N ACROSS THE UPPER RIDGE TO ALONG 15N.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
A BROAD RIDGE DOMINATES THE WITH ITS AXIS MEANDERING FROM ABOUT 
32N137W TO NEAR 10N97W. NE TRADES TO THE S OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE 
AT 15 TO 20 KT...WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL. NORTHERLY 
WINDS N OF 28N TO E OF THE RIDGE AXIS ARE AT 15 TO 20 KT WITH 
SEAS HEIGHTS TO 10 FT IN N SWELL. NW SWELLS ARE MIXING WITH 
SOUTHERLY SWELLS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL AND TROPICAL WATERS W OF 
100W.

GAP WINDS...NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO AT 15 TO 20 KT BRIEFLY ON TUE. NW WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KT 
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT LATE 
TONIGHT.  
    
$$
NELSON