000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040256
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN APR 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 05N77W TO 06N98W TO 04N108W TO 04N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 83W TO 95W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS FROM 112W TO 
120W.

WEAK TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ITCZ FROM 02N-08N ALONG 120W HAS 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM E OF AXIS N OF 07N.  

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND FROM 32N99W ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA 
CALIFORNIA TO 11N128W.  MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE W OF 
TROUGH AXIS MAINTAINS VERY DRY AIR MASS FROM 12N-27N.  SW JET 
STREAM 90 KT SE OF AXIS ADVECTS PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND 
ITCZ CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO BAY OF 
CAMPECHE AND YUCATAN PENINSULA BUT INTO VERY STABLE REGION 
CONTROLLED BY ATLC HIGH PRES.  

WELL DEFINED ANTICYCLONE AT 09N99W HAS CREST FLATTENED BY ABOVE 
MENTIONED TROUGH WITH CONVERGING FLOW ALOFT IN NW AND N QUADRANT 
PRODUCING MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR MASS.  UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENT FLOW E QUADRANT ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
E OF 95W ALONG ITCZ.  

...AT THE SURFACE...
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRES 1039 MB WELL NW OF BASIN WITH RIDGE 
EXTENDING TO 12N105W KEEPS E PAC UNDER STABLE AIR MASS WITH 
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATIFIED LOW CLOUDS WHILE ITCZ IS ABLE TO 
CAST SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 
RIDGE.  MODEL GUIDANCE SOLUTION WEAKENS RIDGE AND DRIFT IT 
EASTWARD THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.  RIDGE MAINTAINS STEADY FLOW 
OF FRESH BREEZE FROM 08N-17N W OF 125W WHICH DIMINISH AS HIGH 
PRES DRIFT EASTWARD.  FRESH NW BREEZE ALONG W COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA ALSO SUBSIDE WITH WEAKENING GRADIENT SUN BUT INCREASE 
TO STRONG BREEZE MON AS HIGH PRES DRIFT E.  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO WINDS EXPECTED TO RETURN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS 
OVER WRN CARIBBEAN MON AND STRONG EASTERLY BREEZE SEEPS THROUGH 
NICARAGUA MOUNTAINS INTO E PAC.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES