000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032204
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT APR 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 05N77W TO 06N96W TO 04N107W TO 05N117W TO 03N135W TO 
04N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
120 NM OF AXIS E OF 94W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 
90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 111W-120W.  

WEAK TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ITCZ FROM 02N-08N ALONG 118W HAS 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM W OF AXIS.  

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND FROM 32N101W ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA 
CALIFORNIA TO 11N127W.  MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE W OF 
TROUGH AXIS MAINTAINS VERY DRY AIR MASS FROM 12N-27N.  SW JET 
STREAM 95 KT SE OF AXIS ADVECTS PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND 
ITCZ CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO BAY OF 
CAMPECHE AND YUCATAN PENINSULA BUT INTO VERY STABLE REGION 
CONTROLLED BY ATLC HIGH PRES.  

WELL DEFINED ANTICYCLONE AT 08N101W HAS CREST FLATTENED BY ABOVE 
MENTIONED TROUGH WITH CONVERGING FLOW ALOFT IN NW AND N QUADRANT 
PRODUCING MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR MASS.  UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENT FLOW E QUADRANT ENHANCES SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
E OF 94W ALONG ITCZ.  

...AT THE SURFACE...
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRES 1037 MB WELL NW OF BASIN WITH RIDGE 
EXTENDING TO 15N108W KEEPS E PAC UNDER STABLE AIR MASS WITH 
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATIFIED LOW CLOUDS WHILE ITCZ IS ABLE TO 
CAST SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 
RIDGE.  RIDGE MAINTAINS STEADY FLOW OF TRADES FROM 08N-17N W OF 
125W WHICH DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES DRIFT EASTWARD.  FRESH NW 
BREEZE ALONG W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ALSO SUBSIDE WITH 
WEAKENING GRADIENT SUN BUT INCREASE TO STRONG BREEZE MON AS  
HIGH PRES DRIFT E.  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO WINDS EXPECTED TO RETURN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS 
OVER WRN CARIBBEAN MON AND STRONG EASTERLY BREEZE SEEPS THROUGH 
NICARAGUA MOUNTAINS INTO E PAC.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES