000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312204
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAR 31 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 04N77W TO 03N100W TO 07N110W TO 07N126W TO 04N136W TO 
04N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS W OF 132W. 

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W OF 
SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN ITCZ FROM 04N125W TO 11N120W. 

...DISCUSSION...
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND FROM CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 
39N126W TO 32N123W TO SECONDARY SMALLER CYCLONE AT 18N140W.  
HEALTHY JET STREAM 155 KT ROUNDS BASE OF VORTEX CAUSING MODERATE 
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE...THEREFORE DRY STABLE AIR MASS...WITHIN 4 
DEG W OF TROUGH AXIS.  SE OF TROUGH AXIS...ABUNDANT TROPICAL 
MOISTURE ADVECTED FROM ITCZ CONVECTIVE DEBRIS BY 125 KT JET CORE 
INTO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NW MEXICO THEN INTO 
SW CONUS.  MOISTURE FEED INTO DEVELOPING LOW PRES 1011 MB OVER 
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SURFACE TROUGH ALONG MEXICO W COAST. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
STATIONARY 1031 MB HIGH PRES WELL NW OF BASIN HAS BROAD RIDGE 
EXTEND TO 25N115W TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT ALONG SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA COAST AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.  STRONG SW BREEZE 
N OF 29N OVER GULF OF CALIFORNIA VEERS NW AS LOW PRES DRIFTS E.  
OTHERWISE...FRESH NE TRADES INDUCED BY RIDGE SQUEEZE AGAINST 
TROUGH ALONG ITCZ.  LONG FETCH ALONG E RIDGE PERIPHERY PROMOTE 
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL SPREADING SE THROUGH ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 
PERIOD.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO STRONG E-NE BREEZE EXPECTED TO HAVE DIURNAL/ 
NOCTURNAL PULSING PATTERNS THROUGHOUT NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT REMAIN 
AT OR BELOW 25 KT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES