000 AXPZ20 KNHC 310959 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED MAR 31 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS WAS ANALYZED ALONG 04N77W TO 05N82W TO 03N95W TO 05N120W TO 06N130W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM S AND 150 NM N OF AXIS E OF 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 240 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 119W AND 133W. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM OF 07N102W ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EASTERLY FLOW. ...DISCUSSION... A LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATING THE NE PACIFIC WAS SWEEPING E ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A SOMEWHAT SHARP BASE OF TROUGH AXIS DIGGING SE ALONG 131W AND N OF 24N...AND HAS COME INTO PHASE WITH A TUTT AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE BASE OF L/W TROUGH SW BEYOND 140W TO NEAR 16N145W. THIS UPPER FEATURE WILL AIDING IN DRAGGING A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SE ACROSS NW PORTIONS...FROM NEAR 30N116W TO BEYOND 23N140W. A NEW PULSE OF LARGE NW SWELL WAS ENTERING THE AREA BEHIND THIS DYING BOUNDARY WITH SHIPS REPORTS INDICATING SEAS 11 TO 18 FT THERE OVERNIGHT. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AND W OF 135W NE WINDS 20-25 KT WERE DEPICTED BY A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AT 0708 UTC...EXTENDING S TO THE ITCZ. SEA IN THIS REGION WERE RUNNING 10 TO 15 FT IN A MIX OF NE WIND SWELL AND LONG PERIOD NW SWELL. SE OF THE L/W TROUGH AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATED THE AREA W OF 115W...WITH AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 10N117W. ACTIVE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ...AND WITHIN A BROAD LOW LEVEL ELY WAVE BETWEEN 120W AND 130W...WAS MAINTAINING GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE EQUATOR AND 10N W OF 113W. LARGE AMOUNTS OF MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WERE BEING TRANSPORTED NE AND E OVER THE UPPER RIDGE...WITH A SRN STREAM UPPER JET MERGING WITH MID LATITUDE LET AHEAD OF BASE OF L/W TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM 23N131W NE TO 27N122W WITH CORE SPEEDS 75-85 KT. AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED IN TUTT LIKE FASHION FROM N FLORIDA SW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO A MID LEVEL LOW NEAR 19N107W...DIGGING VERY SLOWLY SE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS OCCURRING ACROSS SW QUADRANT OF MID LEVEL LOW OFF W COAST OF MEXICO. W-SW UPPER FLOW TO THE SE OF THIS TROUGH DOMINATED THE REST OF THE AREA. ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE... A 1032 MB HIGH WAS OVER THE E CENTRAL PACIFIC NEAR 32N152W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SE AND BRIDGING ACROSS DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO NEAR 23N115W. GRADIENT ALONG SRN CALIFORNIA COAST AND NRN BAJA WAS YIELDING NW TO N WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND MAINTAINING SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. OTHERWISE...NELY TRADES OF AROUND 20 KT INDUCED BY HIGH AGAINST ITCZ WERE CONFINED TO S OF 22N AND W OF 125W. THE L/W TROUGH ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN AND SHIFT E INTO THE WRN U.S. TONIGHT AND THU AND THEN ACROSS THE ROCKIES THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING...WITH A MODEST SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP N OF THE AREA OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST TODAY THAT WILL DIG SE INTO SRN CALIFORNIA AND WEAKEN THROUGH THU MORNING. THIS WILL INDUCE GALE FORCE WINDS IN WRN SEMICIRCLE OF LOW AND BRING 25-30 KT NW WINDS INTO FAR NE PORTIONS LATE TONIGHT...AND DOMINATE THE AREA N OF 24N AND E OF 128W WITH FRESH NW TO N WINDS THROUGH FRI...AND MAINTAIN SEAS THERE 12 TO 16 FT OR HIGHER THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE HIGH OVER THE E CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL NUDGE E-SE ALONG 30N DURING THIS TIME AND REINFORCE THE GRADIENT TOT HE S AND SE...AND EXPAND THE 20-25 KT NELY TRADES TO S OF 25N AND W OF 120W BY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...LONG PERIOD NWLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED BELOW 20 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON. NELY GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL PATTERNS THROUGHOUT THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT REMAIN AT OR BELOW 25 KT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ STRIPLING