000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230954
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAR 23 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 05N77W TO 02N94W TO 07N117W TO 03N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 
98W-132W.

...DISCUSSION...
WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 31N121W HAS TROUGH 
EXTENDS TO 10N130W WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS ALOFT W OF AXIS.  
VORTEX CAUSES STRONG DIVERGENT FLOW JUST OFF COAST OF NORTHERN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH AMPLE RAINFALL E OF CYCLONE EXPECTED TO 
MOVE INLAND LATER TODAY.  

SW JET CORE 115 KT E OF AXIS ADVECTS ABUNDANT MID AND UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA 
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND GULF OF MEXICO ALONG CREST OF MID TO 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 100W.  CONVERGING MASS 
PROMPTING MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR MASS FROM 
10N TO 23N BETWEEN 90W AND 110W UNDER RIDGE COVERAGE. 
  
ANTICYCLONE AT 12N100W EXTEND E-W RIDGE TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA 
ALLOWING DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT TO INDUCE CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ 
W OF 98W. 

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1029 MB WELL N OF AREA DRIFT S AS IT WEAKENS 
...BUT STILL MAINTAINS FRESH TRADES FROM 05N-20N W OF 125W. 
FRESH NW WINDS ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA W COAST DIMINISH WED AS 
HIGH PRES WEAKENS.  HIGH PRES ACTS AS A BARRIER TO COLD FRONT 
APPROACHING FROM NW TO MOVE TOO FAR S OF 30N BEFORE DIFFUSING.  
NW SWELLS DECAY DURING NEXT 48 HRS AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS...BUT 
REBUILD AGAIN LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD AS GALE FORCE WINDS CROSS 
WELL N OF AREA.  NOAA WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TO BE 
SHORT LIED EVENT WITH HIGHEST SEAS NEAR 11 FT MAINLY IN NW 
CORNER OF E PAC BASIN.  

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE EARLIER 
LAST NIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO CONTINUE WITH STRONG BREEZE AS NIGHT DOWNSLOPE 
MOUNTAIN DRAINAGE ENHANCES FRESH TRADES IN PLACE DUE TO 
STATIONARY FRONT OVER WESTERN CARIBBEAN. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES