000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030944
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAR 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0930 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 06N77W TO 04N105W TO 05N120W TO 04N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 117W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...
A FLAT BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N PORTION OF THE 
FORECAST AREA MAINLY N OF 20N W OF 125W. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS 
INDICATED A 110-140 KT JET STREAM ROUNDS THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH 
AND EXTENDS ENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA INTO SOUTHERN 
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO/W TEXAS. THIS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW ONLY 
PROVIDING MINIMAL SUPPORT FOR A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT 
STRETCHES FROM 30N119W TO 23N130W. A TRAIN OF LONG PERIOD...
17-19 SECONDS...SWELLS HAS OUTRUN THE FRONT AND IS ADVANCING 
SE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SEA HEIGHTS OF UP TO 18 FT OVER THE NW 
PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SE 
ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ABOVE...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 105W COVERS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 
NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO AND EXTENDS NWD ACROSS THE SW CONUS. THE 
STRONG JET STREAM WAS ADVECTING A PLUME OF MID/UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE BETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. 

IN THE DEEP TROPICS...AN EAST TO WEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS 
FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO NEAR 8N100W. THIS 
RIDGE ALSO COVERS MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM 18N108W TO 10N110W TO THE EQUATOR AT 106W. ABUNDANT 
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED NE WITHIN 600 NM E OF 
THE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED 
NEAR 6N130W DOMINATES THE SW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. 
THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO INDUCE SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE 
ITCZ. 

A 0246 UTC WINDSAT PASS AND A SUBSEQUENT 0652 UTC ASCAT PASS 
INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 
25 KT ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE 
CENTRAL PACIFIC BUILDING IN BEHIND THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT. 
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PRES GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER MEXICO WILL RESULT IN NW 
WINDS OF 20 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF N BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA BEGINNING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  

A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 
ITCZ...ONE ALONG 117W FROM 4N TO 8N AND ANOTHER THAT EXTENDS 
FROM 10N131W TO 4N133W. MODERATE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING AT THE 
BASE OF THE EASTERNMOST TROUGH. 

GAP WINDS...
A HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS FROM 0324 UTC INDICATED THAT THE 
GALE EVENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MAY HAVE PEAKED WITH 30 TO 
40 KT WINDS INDICATED WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM 16.5N95W TO 
14N96W. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATER 
TODAY...HOWEVER 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WILL STILL OCCUR UNTIL LATE 
THURSDAY. 
  
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL 
AMERICA. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
COBB