000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252125
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU FEB 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 06N77W TO 04N87W TO 06.5N104.5W TO 
03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 210 NM N AND 
240 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 83W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 270 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 95W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 108W AND 125W. 

...DISCUSSION...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS N OF 20N AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS OVER 
THE E PART OF THE AREA WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE BAJA 
PENINSULA TO NEAR 20N120W. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE IS LOCATED W OF 
THIS FEATURE. PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL JET ACROSS THE REGION 
EXTENDS FROM NEAR 10N140W ENE ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. S OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 
5N E OF 120W. CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ...THOUGH DECREASING IN 
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE AND MAINTAIN A TRANSFER OF KINETIC ENERGY INTO THE 
SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE NORTH. 

AT THE SURFACE...1024 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 29N125W AS 
INDICATED BY LATEST ASCAT AND WINDSAT PASSES. THIS FEATURE 
CONTINUES TO CONTROL THE WIND REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST 
AREA. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE ITCZ CONTINUES 
TO SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRING TRADES ALONG THE 
TRADEWIND BELT W OF 120W. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT E AND 
ENABLE A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA 
TONIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY NW WINDS TO 30 
KT AND LARGE NW SWELL...DRIVING COMBINED SEAS TO ABOUT 23 FT 
BEHIND FRONT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD  FRONT 
SHIFT E ACROSS THE N EXTENT OF THE AREA...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL 
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE FRI...WHICH WILL DECREASE THE COVERAGE OF 
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES. 

GAP WINDS...
WITH WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO VEERING...AND THE SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO DISSIPATING... WINDS FUNNELING INTO 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE DECREASED...AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH 
BELOW GALE FORCE BY THIS EVENING. 

WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTING NEAR COSTA RICA IN THE SW 
CARIBBEAN...WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO HAVE 
INCREASED TO 20 KT. AS THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN 
WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES...WINDS FUNNELING INTO THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO WILL DECREASE...AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT FRI 
NIGHT. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AL