000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240325
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED FEB 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N78W TO 08N82W TO 05.5N88W TO 
07.5N114W TO 06N122W TO 02.5N130W TO 03N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS AND 210 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 79W AND 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS AND 330 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 
86W AND 95W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 
NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 99W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W 
AND 121W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WITH 
AXIS EXTENDING SW ACROSS OLD MEXICO AND ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA 
TO 23N120W....WITH RIDGING PREVAILING W OF THIS TROUGH. A VERY 
PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL JET ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 12N140W TO 
15N130W ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE JET CORE WINDS OF 50 TO 90 KT. 
THIS JET CONTINUES TO ADVECT PLENTIFUL MID TO UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE 
DEEP CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC NE TO E ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND 
OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. ELSEWHERE ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
IS NOTED ALONG 06N E OF 125W. ENHANCED ITCZ CONVECTION AND 
ASSOCIATED LATENT HEAT RELEASE IS HELPING MAINTAIN THE UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGING...AND PROVIDING ENERGY TO THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO 
THE N. 

AT THE SURFACE...1024 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 26.5N128W 
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THERE TO NEAR 14N107W 
TO ITS EAST...AND RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO NEAR 24.5N140W TO ITS 
WEST. THIS HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING IS CONTROLLING THE WIND 
REGIME ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA W OF 100W. THE PRES 
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
ITCZ CONTINUES TO GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF NE TO E TRADE WINDS 
OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 05N TO 20N W OF 110W AS DEPICTED BY EARLIER 
ASCAT PASS. WITH THE HIGH REMAINING FAIRLY STATIONARY...AND 
MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...THE AREA OF 
TRADES WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS PRESENT JUST TO THE WEST OF THE SIERRA MADRE 
OCCIDENTAL WHICH IS CREATING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS 
TROUGH AND THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE W OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. NW 
TO N WINDS OF 20 KT CONTINUE TO GET FUNNELED ALONG THE W COAST 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE NW TO N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE 
AFFECTING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. 

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE MAJORITY 
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA MAINLY W OF 100W. THESE NW SWELLS ARE 
COMBINING WITH NE TRADEWIND SWELL IN THE REGION OF STRONGEST 
TRADES W OF 110W. ANOTHER ROUND OF NW SWELL GENERATED BEHIND THE 
COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA HAS PROPAGATED INTO THE FAR NW PORTION 
OF THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 17 FT. 

GAP WINDS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO 
PUSH E THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO ON WED. THIS WILL FUNNEL 
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE CHIVELAS PASS AND ACROSS THE ISTHMUS 
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL 
INCREASE TO 20 KT WED MORNING...THEN WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO 
GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WINDS LOOK TO PERSIST 
THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING BELOW GALE FORCE BY FRI 
NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PUSH SE THROUGH THE NW 
CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT. N TO NE WINDS OF 20 KT WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT 
THE GULF OF FONSECA THU MORNING AS WINDS CHANNELING THROUGH THE 
PASSES OF CENTRAL AMERICA ARE ENHANCED BY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE 
FLOW. WINDS WILL THEN DROP BELOW 20 KT THU AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE AND INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN 
WITH NE TO E WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
THU AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AL