000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151516
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON FEB 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 4N78W 3N85W 5N90W 3N100W 6N110W 5N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W.
OTHERWISE THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN FROM
10N-25N...WITH A 95-110 KT JETSTREAM FROM 18N140W TO THE COAST 
OF MEXICO NEAR 20N105W WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 120-125 KT.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 480 NM S OF THE JET 
FROM 140W-115W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MID 
AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE AREA N OF THE 
JETSTREAM W OF 110W...EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER 
THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. S OF 10N A WEAK UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS W OF 130W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 10N106W 
TO THE EQUATOR AT 110W. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS W OF COSTA RICA 
AND PANAMA.

A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 31N131W WITH A 
RIDGE COVERING THE AREA N OF 13N W OF 120W. TRADES S OF THE HIGH 
ARE 20 KT RANGE FROM 14N-21N W OF 124W. HOWEVER LARGE SWELLS 
COVER THE AREA W OF 105W IN THE 9-15 KT RANGE WITH LARGEST SWELL 
ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE AREA. A COUPLE OF TROUGHS ARE 
ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE FIRST IS FROM 1N TO 9N ALONG 93W A 
FEW SHOWERS ARE FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 92W AND 94W. SECOND TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM 10N108W TO 1N110W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 4N-7N 
BETWEEN 107W-110W.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO 
TODAY WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT AND 
TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO RESULTING IN GALE 
FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHAUNTEPEC LATE TONIGHT. ELY WINDS 
20-25 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS