000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232151
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JAN 23 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 08N89W TO 05N95W TO 05N105W TO 03N115W TO 06N135W TO 
06N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS 
E OF 90W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS W 
OF 134W.

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PREVIOUSLY INFLUENCED 
WEATHER REGIME OVER W COAST HAS MOVED E WITH AXIS NOW ALONG 
102W.  BROAD RIDGE NOW ALONG 128W HAS REPLACED TROUGH AND BRINGS 
ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE ON ITS W SIDE INTO SCENARIO. STRONG 
SHORT WAVE PIVOTS AROUND UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE N OF AREA 
ALONG 148W USHERING IN NEW SERIES OF COLD FRONTS INTO FORECAST 
WATERS...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE N THAN LAST WEEK...POSSIBLY 
KEEPING GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 30N...ALTHOUGH NW SWELLS ARE 
LIKELY TO CONTINUE AT A REDUCED HEIGHT THAN BEFORE.  NWW3 MODEL 
GUIDANCE CAPS NEW SWELL HEIGHTS SHORT OF 20 FT. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1020 MB AT 26N130W BUILDS ACROSS BASIN BLOCKING 
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM FURTHER SRN INTRUSION.  STRONG W-NW 
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF 25N AND W OF 130W.  HIGH PRES ALSO 
PROMPTS FRESH TRADES FROM 06N-13N W OF 115W THROUGHOUT ENTIRE 
FORECAST PERIOD.

NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE FROM 5N TO 15N THROUGH
THE NEXT 48 HRS AS A COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS MOVE W THROUGH THE 
ITCZ.

HIGH BREAKERS HAVE BEEN IMPACTING W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 
MEXICO ALL THROUGH LAST WEEK DUE TO LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS 
CROSSING ENTIRE BASIN.  SWELL TRAINS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BUT 
NEVERTHELESS SEAS REMAIN IN DOUBLE DIGITS AS SERIES OF COLD 
FRONTS SKIRT NRN EDGES OF 30N. 

GAP WINDS...
FRESH N WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE IN 
FORECAST PERIOD AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES