000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101016
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JAN 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 06N77W TO 04N95W TO 09N125W TO 07N140W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 88W.  ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 106W TO 129W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N118W TO 13N140W FORCING MID-UPPER 
LEVEL DOWNSTREAM RIDGE INTO SW CONUS.  WITHIN 24 HRS RIDGE HOLD ITS 
GROUND PUSHING TROUGH NE AND EFFECTIVELY LEAVING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT WITHOUT SUPPORT.  COLD FRONT DISSIPATES WITHIN 48 HRS.
UPPER TROUGH ADVECTS PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO NW MEXICO BUT RIDGE 
DOES WELL IN SHUNTING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.  

FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...PREVIOUS LARGE AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE NOW ALONG 95W 
...DEVOID OF ITS POWERFUL JET CORE...DRIES E PAC S OF 15N FROM 90W 
TO 110W WITH ONLY A PATCH OF MINOR MODERATE CONVECTION E OF 88W. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALLOWS ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE  
CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ ACROSS CENTRAL PART OF BASIN ASSOCIATED WITH 
WEAK TROUGH LONG 119W.

HIGH PRES CENTER 1022 MB 32N123W WITH RIDGE TO 10N128W WELL ANCHORED 
OVER N BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST.  MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS COLD FRONT INTO 
BASIN REACHING FROM 30N134W TO 26N140W.  STRONG SW WINDS ASSOCIATED 
WITH SYSTEM ALONG WITH VERY LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS WHICH 
EVENTUALLY SPREAD THROUGHOUT E PAC W OF 110W.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE WINDS TO 50 KT REPORTED BY VESSEL 
VERIFIES STORM FORCE WINDS IN AREA WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 21 FT.  
MODEL SOLUTION MAINTAINS SPEEDS THROUGH NEXT 24 HRS THEN DIMINISH 
AND REMAIN AT GALE FORCE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HRS.  A SLOW 
DIMINISHING TREND THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRES CENTER OVER GULF OF MEXICO 
SHIFTS E. 

GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...STRONG COLD FRONT THAT PROMPTED 
STORM FORCE CONDITIONS IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXPECTED TO BRING GALE 
FORCE WINDS TO PAPAGAYO SUN MORNING AND REMAIN THROUGH NEXT 48 HRS 
AS STRONG SW CARIBBEAN TRADES FILTER THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA AND 
INTO E PAC.  SIMILARLY WINDS FORECAST THROUGH GULF OF FONSECA 
INCREASE TO NEAR GALE.

GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH N TO NE WINDS ACROSS GULF EXPECTED TO HOLD 
THROUGH 48 HRS AS HIGH PRES CENTER BUILDS S INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND 
SW CARIBBEAN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES