000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021555
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JAN 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 5N78W 4N100W 8N115W 5N130W 6N140W  SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM S OF AXIS FROM 
135W TO 138W.
  
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE FAR NW 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N140W TO 27N137W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 30N
MOVING NE. OTHERWISE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE PATTERN 
W OF AROUND 120W. A 95-100 KT JETSTREAM ENTERS THE AREA AT
16N140W TO 20N130W THE ESE TO 18N115W. BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS
ARE WITHIN 300 NM S OF THE JET...TRANSVERSE BANDING IS NOTED
ON THE CIRRUS CLOUDS INDICATING POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL TURBULENCE.
A MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW ARIZONA ACROSS BAJA 
CALIFORNIA TO 15N110W TO 5N105W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE
WITH DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
IS W OF THE TROUGH TO 120W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER MEXICO.
SW FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE NE INTO CENTRAL AND NW MEXICO.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IN THE DEEP TROPICS CENTERED JUST OFF THE 
COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 9N85W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NW ACROSS 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF
15N E OF 105W HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE
ITCZ.

HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WITH ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE IS DOMINATING 
THE AREA N OF 14N W OF 115W. THE RIDGE SHOULD BLOCK A COLD FRONT 
THE IS JUST W OF THE AREA. ELY TRADES WITH THE RIDGE ARE IN THE
20-25 KT RANGE FROM 6N-22N W OF 115W.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS AT STORM FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE TONIGHT AND BELOW GALE FORCE SUN THEN 
INCREASE AGAIN TO GALE FORCE SUN NIGHT.
 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH SUN DIMINISHING TO 20 KT SUN NIGHT. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
  
$$
DGS