000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302204
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED DEC 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS CENTERED ALONG 4N77W 7N89W 
5N102W 5N116W 5N125W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 78W-80W.
  
...DISCUSSION...

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE 
DISCUSSION OF THE AREA WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLING OVER
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FAR NW PART. A LARGE
MID/UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO FROM THE
CENTRAL U.S. TO 24N115W TO 21N123W THEN S TO NEAR 14N125W. 
CONFLUENT FLOW INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS RESULTING
IN MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH ASSOCIATED DRY STABLE CONDITIONS
TO THE N OF THE TROUGH. SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM
OF SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS IS SPREADING S OVER THE FAR NE
PORTION OF THE AREA.

AN UPPER RIDGE ORIGINATING OVER S AMERICA RIDGES NW OVER THE 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER MOISTURE 
ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 115W AND 135W IS BEING 
ADVECTED NE VIA A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS CENTRAL MEXICO AND WELL NE ACROSS THE SE U.S.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N102W TO NEAR 1N103W...
AND EARLIER WAS ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 97W
-101W. PLENTY OF SURROUNDING DRY AIR ALOFT IS HAS DRIED MUCH
OF THE REMAINING DEBRIS MOISTURE.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRE OF 1027 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 29N127W
WITH A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N115W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 
12N W OF 110W. 

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE FORECAST TO 
DIMINISH TONIGHT TO 20 TO 25 KT...THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 
KT THU NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH FRI EVENING.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 20 KT OVER MUCH
OF THE GULF BY THU WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRI.

SEA CONDITIONS ARE DOMINATED BY LONG PERIOD NW SWELL (WAVE 
PERIODS OF UP TO 16 SECONDS) WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS AS 
HIGH AS 12 FT. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
  
$$
AGUIRRE