000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270915
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN DEC 27 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...05N77W TO 
07N100W TO 08N125W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 82.5W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE ITCZ FROM 
130W TO 138W. 

...DISCUSSION...

MODERATE DEEP LAYER WESTERLIES ARE NORTH OF 20N. DEEP LAYER 
MOISTURE IS PRESENT WITHIN THIS AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVELS CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF 25N EAST OF 138W. SHORTWAVE 
IS WITHIN THESE WESTERLIES AND IS ALONG 139W NORTH OF 28N. THE 
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ABOUT 30 KNOTS AND STRENGTHEN 
AND REACH BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE MONDAY. SOME CONVECTION IS 
NOTED NEAR AND WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM EAST OF THE SHORTWAVE. THE 
OVERALL DEEP LAYER WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A WEAKENING DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MEXICAN GULF OF 
MEXICO COAST NEAR 22N SOUTHWEST TO THE ITCZ NEAR 124W. A NARROW 
BAND OF MOISTURE IS WITHIN 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 
MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOISTURE IS CONFINED 
TO OVER MEXICO EAST OF 100W.

EXCEPT FOR THE ABOVE MOISTURE THE AREA SOUTH OF 20N TO THE ITCZ 
IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. DEEP LAYER 
MOISTURE IS PRESENT SOUTH OF THE ITCZ EAST OF 95W AND ALSO NEAR 
THE ITCZ WEST OF 120W OTHERWISE THE ITCZ AND SOUTH OF THE ITCZ 
IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.

MODERATE SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 12N WEST OF 130W AND A WEAK 
RIDGE IS NORTH OF 12N EAST OF 130W. ELSEWHERE A BROAD TROUGH 
CENTERED ON THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED AT THE SURFACE.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 
25 KT TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT AND SPREAD SOUTHWEST 
BY MONDAY NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...E WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 KT 
TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT AND SPREAD EAST BY MONDAY 
NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
  
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