000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151521
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE DEC 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 06N77W TO 07N105W TO 05N115W TO 07N125W TO 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 123W AND 125W AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS W OF 
130W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM N CENTRAL MEXICO 
THROUGH SOUTHERN BAJA IS SHIFTING EAST...AHEAD OF A MID TO UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO 20N130W. A 
ASSOCIATED 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES AREA IS CENTERED NEAR 
32N122W. ASCAT...WINDSAT AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING 
PERSISTENT 20 TO 25 KT TRADES TO THE SOUTH OF THE HIGH 
PRES...AND TO THE NORTH OF A PAIR OF WEAK TROUGHS NOTED ALONG 
THE ITCZ NEAR 105W AND 125W. THE HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...MAINTAINING THE FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADES. 

FURTHER WEST...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING OVER THE CENTRAL 
PACIFIC...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHING TO THE NORTH OF 
HAWAII AND INTO THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS FRONT 
WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH WED. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT MAY BE 
WEAK...A LARGE AREA OF NW SWELL WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION 
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH SEAS UP TO 15 FT AND PERIODS TO 
14 SECONDS.

SHIP OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS 
EAST OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRES ALONG THE BAJA COAST AND AS FAR 
SOUTH AS 20N OFF CABO CORRIENTES. 

GAP WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND TEHUANTEPEC. 
A SHIP OBSERVATION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING INDICATED 20 KT 
FLOW THROUGH PAPAGAYO. WINDS ARE LIKELY 20 TO 25 KT HOWEVER PER 
AN ASCAT PASS FROM LAST EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG TRADE 
WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN AND LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS WILL ALLOW THE 
FRESH WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT...DIMINISHING THROUGH 
THU. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY 
EARLY WED AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. 
WINDS WILL REACH NEAR GALE BY WED NIGHT AS THE COLD DENSE AIR 
FUNNELS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS AND INTO THE ADJACENT PACIFIC 
WATERS. 


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE
  
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CHRISTENSEN